Liberty vs Coastal Carolina Picks & Props
LIB vs CCU Picks
NCAAF Picks
Liberty got off to a bumpy start to the season, but it showed last week against Ball State what its talent is capable of. With Deshawn Purdie settling in as QB1 for Jamey Chadwell, the Flames have the talent to exploit the Chant's pass defense (109th in EPA per pass). Purdie leads the country in ADOT (13.7), and Makai Jackson is one of only five receivers averaging 25+ yards per reception with 200+ receiving yards.
o27.5 Team Total (+105)
Liberty just put up 51 points on a Ball State defense ranked 132nd by SP+. Coastal Carolina's defense isn't much better, sitting 112th. Coastal's defense has been particularly bad against the pass (109th in EPA per pass), and Flames QB Deshawn Purdie is one of the most talented passers at the G6 level. With Purdie's penchant for pushing the ball downfield, he should lead the Flames to at least four TDs.
o51.5 (+105)
Liberty is coming off a blowout win in which it put up 460 yards. Coastal Carolina's defense ranks outside the Top 100 in EPA per pass and early-down EPA per play. However, the Chanticleers do have a talented QB in Deuce Bailey, who's a big game hunter averaging the third-highest ADOT in the country (12.8). One of the QBs with a higher ADOT than him is Liberty's Deshawn Purdie. I expect these two to provide a Thursday night shootout and would play the Over at 52.5 or better.
Neither of these defenses has been very impressive, and both QBs love to push the ball downfield. Liberty's Deshawn Purdie leads the country in ADOT (13.7), while Coastal Carolina's Deuce Bailey is third (12.8). Both defenses have major flaws, too. The Chanticleers are 109th in EPA per pass, and the Flames are 109th in EPA per rush. Liberty has more overall talent and should be able to win in a shootout.
LIB vs CCU Consensus Picks
LIB vs CCU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RUSHING YARDS
CCU
J. Edwards
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
58.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.6
DIFFERENCE
24.3%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
LIB
P. Jones
(RB)
o56.5 Rushing Yards
60.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
17.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LIB
B. Randolph
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
30.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.5
DIFFERENCE
26.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
CCU
T. Gardner
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
30.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-0.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LIB
M. Jackson
(WR)
o52.5 Receiving Yards
53.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
-11.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
LIB
P. Jones
(RB)
o11.5 Carries
12.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
1.18%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 5-0 in Flames last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-0 in Flames last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Chanticleers last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Chanticleers last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Flames last 4 vs. S-Belt.
Under is 3-0-1 in Flames last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Chanticleers last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Chanticleers last 4 non-conference games.
ROI Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.