Indiana @ Ohio State Picks & Props

Good luck finding a flaw in either Ohio State or Indiana. But when it comes to exceeding expectations, Ohio State does so far more often, winning against the spread in nine of its 10 games against Power Four competition this year, compared to just a 5-4 ATS record against Power Four foes for Indiana.

Jackson has gone for over 100 yards in three straight games, and will be a key weapon as Ohio State tries to punch through a stubborn Indiana defensive front.

The Buckeyes want to run the ball and dominate the clock. They limited Michigan to just 44 offensive snaps this weekend, and their run rate above expected is one of the highest in the nation.

In Penn State’s narrow defeat to the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions ran the ball 33 times to help set up the play-action game. It led to multiple chunk completions, as Indiana allowed six throws of at least 15 yards on the day. 

It’s hard to see either team putting up consistent scoring. And if Ohio State gets the lead, it’s going to pound the rock and lean on the defense. That will keep this game in the 24-17 or 27-20 realm with the total going Under.

These two teams are near mirror images of one another on paper. But in terms of talent, there's a difference.

Ohio State has NFL players at nearly every position on the field, especially on defense. That defense became just the second in the modern era to hold every opponent below 17 points—and did so while covering the spread in 10 of 12 contests.

The Hoosiers are very good, but they give up too many explosive plays on defense and covered the spread just seven times. That's why I'll back the Buckeyes, who will rely on their run game and defense to hold onto the lead once they get it.