NBA Picks

Gilgeous-Alexander has cashed the Over in points in three of his last five. SGA dropped 40 on Tuesday against Orlando, and he’s up against the lowly Washington Wizards tonight, one of the worst teams around. He’s hit the Over in two of his last three road contests, and Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.6 PPG on the road. 

In terms of shooting, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 118.9 points per game away from home ranks 4th-strongest in the league this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Wizards).

Doncic just scored 100 points across his last two games, and he's cashed the Over in three straight. Luka dropped 60 on the Miami Heat a couple of nights ago. 

The Orlando Magic have dropped three straight games after winning seven in a row, and they can earn a much-needed victory tonight. Over the last 10 games, the Lakers and Magic both rank in the top-11 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and despite LA’s recent surge, the Magic can hang with them.

The Lakers will play their fourth road game in six days, and Austin Reaves could sit this one out. LA sports a +3.4 net rating with Reaves, but that falls to -1.5 without him. Look for a rested and motivated Magic team to get the dub.

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 3rd-slowest tempo team in the league over the last 15 games (the Hornets).. As a team, the Grizzlies have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls as the visting team: 9th-worst in the league this year, tallying a lowly 22.0 free throws per game.

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 3rd-slowest tempo team in the league over the last 15 games (the Hornets).. As a team, the Grizzlies have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls as the visting team: 9th-worst in the league this year, tallying a lowly 22.0 free throws per game.

The Pelicans would surely be much closer to the play-in spots if Murray had been available all year. They’re 5-4 in his nine outings since returning from an Achilles injury, and he’s averaging 20.7 PPG this month.

Murray sat out Thursday’s win over the Los Angeles Clippers, but he’s gone past this points prop number in four straight games, headlined by 35 points against the Houston Rockets last week. Though there are other mouths to feed in the New Orleans offense, look for Murray to be in attack mode here against the Cavs’ shaky perimeter defense.

Mobley has hit the Over in points in three of his last four, and he's surpassed 25 points in back-to-back games. The Pelicans are allowing over 22 points per contest to centers. 

Houston just ended Atlanta's 11-game win streak in a 117-95 romp. They're fourth in scoring defense and have held five of the last eight opponents to 105 points or less.

The Under has cashed in three straight matchups, with all signs pointing to a fourth.

The Miami Heat have been the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The matchup vs. Houston is a tough one; when the Houston Rockets have the home court advantage, they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (12.8).. The Miami Heat will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA this year (the Houston Rockets).. The matchup against Houston may be a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 1.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Rockets are at home (least in the NBA).

The Spurs have allowed just 105.3 points over their 4-game win streak, with opponents shooting just 42.9% from the field.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, but the San Antonio Spurs grade out 10thworst in in the NBA while at home with a mere 10.7 offensive boards per game this year.

Jalen Johnson is averaging career highs in rebounds (10.5) and assists (8.1), hitting Over 18.5 on that combo in three of his last four games.

Golden State ranks near the bottom of the league in rebounding (22nd) while Atlanta is averaging 91.9 field goal attempts per game (2nd), leaving plenty of boards for Johnson.

In regard to scoring, the Golden State Warriors's unimpressive 108.8 points per game while playing on the road rates 5th-weakest in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The Golden State Warriors have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 10 games.

Flagg has fallen behind Kon Knueppel in the Rookie of the Year race, but he’s poised to finish strong for the Mavs. With the keys to the offense and great size on the boards, he’s gone past this combo O/U number in three of his last four games. His scoring will be the driver for this Over, and that’s a nice volume play. Flagg has taken 17+ shots in 12 of his last 17 games, and he’s averaging 22.5 PPG in his past four outings. Even if Kawhi Leonard returns for the Clippers, Flagg can still stuff the stat sheet.

The matchup against Los Angeles is a tough one for scoring; when the Clippers are on the road, the opposition's starting SFs have compiled the 5th-lowest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (43.3%).. The Mavericks are expected to experience a decrease in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most lethargic pace visiting team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the LA Clippers).. The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 1.1 threes per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Jazz, making this a hard matchup.. The Jazz have played at the 9th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to decreased possessions for the 76ers.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in further chances for scoring and assists, but the 76ers rank 10thworst in in the NBA without the home court advantage with just 10.4 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

The matchup against Utah is a strong one; when the Utah Jazz are on their home court, they have allowed the most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (24.0).. The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 7th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.. As a team, the 76ers have been very successful at getting to the foul line of late: 10th-best in the NBA over the last 20 games with 25.1 foul shot attempts per game.. This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 5.6 free throws per game (highest in the NBA) against the Jazz, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe.

Over his last 10 games, Devin Booker has averaged 30.3 points. In that span, he scored 28+ six times and finished with 27 twice more. He provided 27 points against the Milwaukee Bucks on March 10.

Milwaukee’s defense has been dreadful over the last 10 games, surrendering the fifth-most points (120.5), most three-pointers )16.9) and third-highest three-point percentage (39%), while sporting the 29th-ranked defensive rating (123.3). Booker should be motivated to get his team back on track after four straight losses, and I expect him to take advantage of this highly-favorable matchup at home.

The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.. The 6th-quickest pace away offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Bucks.