NBA Picks

Nick Nurse said he plans to play the 76ers' starters through the first half and briefly after halftime before turning things over to the bench. If Philadelphia follows through, I'll back the Sixers at 68% against Boston. The Celtics played Jayson Tatum for 29 minutes Wednesday, with other key starters logging 25-plus minutes. With just one day of rest and a road game ahead, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston rest key players, giving Philadelphia an advantage.

Myles Turner should be fired up to face his former team in Indiana, even in the preseason. Milwaukee rested its key starters and bench players Wednesday against Chicago, signaling that its starters should be ready to play against the Pacers. With a rest day behind them, I expect Milwaukee's starters to see a solid workload, making the Bucks an appealing play at just 37% to win.

After playing its starters Thursday against the Knicks, Toronto faces a road back-to-back in its preseason finale Friday, making this a prime spot for a full-on punt job. The Raptors could rest not only their starters but key bench players, too, leaving a lineup of players deep down the depth chart. Even if Detroit sits some starters, the mismatch in roster construction and projected minutes should still be significant.

I'm hesitant to back road teams on the final day of preseason unless I'm confident in the lineups or there's enough value in the edge to absorb a key absence. Bam Adebayo missed Miami's last game with a groin injury, while Giannis Antetokounmpo played Wednesday. I doubt both players suit up here, making Orlando appealing at 61%. If the Magic were trading closer to 70%, however, I'd stay away from this price.

It's the Zaccharie Risacher Bowl on the final day of preseason basketball! Jokes aside, Dallas rested key players against New Orleans after returning from China, and with Wednesday off, I expect the Mavericks' starters to suit up for their home finale. The Mavericks moneyline is my favorite play on the board. I make Dallas a 58% favorite if both teams play their starters, creating value at 53%. If Atlanta rests anyone, our edge grows even more.

Minnesota's starters have already played Monday and Wednesday. Will they suit up for a third preseason game Friday, especially on the road against Chicago? I have my doubts. I'd hesitate to back the Bulls as favorites, but at 45%, I'm willing to hit the button. If Minnesota rests key players, Chicago's win probability could climb significantly, giving us an even bigger edge. At this price, I'm happy to get ahead of the potential lineup news.

Memphis should be favored by more than 50% against a banged-up Charlotte team missing Coby White and Kon Knueppel. Those absences put the offensive burden squarely on Brandon Miller, who hasn't looked comfortable carrying the load this preseason. If Miller also sits or sees limited minutes, Charlotte's offense takes another major hit, giving the Grizzlies an even bigger edge in this matchup.

I didn't expect New Orleans to be a home underdog against Washington. At 49%, I'll gladly back the Pelicans, who I price closer to 56%. I also like how their bench rotation projects, with Jeremiah Fears running the offense at point guard. Fears scored 16 points Wednesday against Dallas and gives the second unit a reliable offensive engine who can keep creating offense after the starters leave the floor.

This is a similar read to the Bucks game. Sacramento rested its starters and key bench players Tuesday, likely saving them for this final preseason tune-up. With their last game coming Saturday, the Kings should be fresh for a regular-season workload. San Antonio is trading at 75% after playing its starters Wednesday against Phoenix. I'll back Sacramento at 27%, expecting solid minutes from its starters and hoping any late Spurs absences create an even bigger edge.

Portland played its starters Monday and Tuesday in a back-to-back, so I expect them to suit up again in Golden State. The Trail Blazers' depth also protects them against absences, with Jrue Holiday, Ja Morant and Scoot Henderson available if Damian Lillard sits. Golden State is far more vulnerable if Stephen Curry rests. At 47%, I'll gladly back Portland, who I price as a 55% favorite even if both teams' starters play, thanks to its roster depth advantage.

This is the matchup I'm most confident will feature starters versus starters, at least in the first half. Phoenix rested its starters Wednesday, while Utah hasn't played since Monday, leaving both teams fresh for their final preseason tune-up. With Mark Williams out, Oso Ighodaro should handle most of the center minutes. I'll back Utah at 45%, as Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen can exploit that matchup offensively while protecting the rim against Jalen Green and Miles Bridges.

David Adelman said Denver's starters would play one of its two games in Los Angeles and rest in the other. With all the starters playing Wednesday against the Clippers, I expect the Nuggets to go with their bench in this preseason finale. Luka Doncic rested Tuesday and should be ready for the Lakers. At 69%, I'm backing Los Angeles, with its win probability potentially climbing even higher once the injury reports become official.

I’ll gladly take the Boston Celtics as an underdog against the Detroit Pistons on Opening Night. The Jaylen Brown-for-Paul George trade raised plenty of eyebrows, but this matchup shows why Boston made the move. George gives the Celtics another versatile perimeter defender who can switch onto Cade Cunningham and hold his own, even if Detroit uses actions to get Derrick White off Cunningham. That versatility is valuable against a Pistons team built around Cunningham creating advantages. There’s also a major question mark surrounding Jalen Duren. Will he even be on the floor for this matchup, or will he still be on the roster by Opening Night? I also think George’s fit in Boston will play out better than people anticipate. His three-point-heavy shot diet fits the Celtics’ offense, while his ability to make quick decisions and connect the offense as a passer adds another dimension. Give me the points with Boston.

The Philadelphia 76ers are loaded and rightfully among the favorites to win it all, but I’m not backing them on Opening Night. There are too many high-usage players who still need to find their rhythm together, while the New York Knicks have the advantage of continuity and familiarity — the same foundation that helped them win the title. Philadelphia still has to figure out its rotations, offensive actions and how to divide minutes and usage to maximize its roster construction. The Knicks already have those answers. If this matchup were later in the season, I’d view the spread differently, but on Opening Night, give me New York.

The San Antonio Spurs are a brutal matchup for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and nothing that happened this offseason has changed my mind. If anything, San Antonio widened the gap by adding Tobias Harris for additional depth, while Oklahoma City had to sacrifice key role players like Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, and Aaron Wiggins to create cap space. The Thunder thrive on using their multiple elite perimeter defenders to disrupt actions, force live-ball turnovers, and turn those takeaways into easy offense. San Antonio's advantage is that it doesn't have a primary point guard who has to initiate every possession. The Spurs can have De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, or Dylan Harper bring the ball up and attack whichever matchup is most favorable, allowing them to avoid pressure defenders like Alex Caruso. Give me the Spurs on Opening Night to continue their dominance over the Thunder.