NBA Picks

When it comes to shots from downtown, the Portland Trail Blazers's unimpressive 33.7% rate of converted threes ranks 2nd-fewest in the league this year.. The Hornets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Trail Blazers.

With both groups also playing at a top-five pace, the combination of extra possessions and awful stop units sets up as a high-scoring affair in Sacramento. 

The Bulls have been racking up losses, but Giddey continues to deliver standout numbers. He’s coming off a triple-double at the weekend, and he’s dished 9+ assists in four straight outings. Giddey’s playmaking goes up a notch on the road, and it helps that Chicago ranks eighth in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season. With the Bulls playing with tanking freedom this month, the Aussie is on pace to match his 9.8 APG mark from November. I’m not scared off by his recent ankle issue, especially against a Warriors team that allowed 119 points in Utah last night.

The Golden State Warriors are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from sharing the court with the speediest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Bulls).. The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).. The matchup against Chicago is a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 5.4 foul shots per game this year when the Chicago Bulls are the visiting team (3rd-most in the league).

When the Minnesota Timberwolves dispatched the Los Angeles Lakers with ease in last year’s first round, it was largely a credit to how easily their defense mitigated the Lakers’ post game. Removing rim runners from Luka Doncic’s peripheral vision reduces Doncic’s overall effectiveness.

Luka Doncic is trading at -115 for the Over 31.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking given that I price it closer to -170. This sets up as a rivalry game between the Lakers and the Timberwolves, and with the Lakers off yesterday and another off day tomorrow, there’s little reason to expect any limitation on Doncic’s workload. In what should be a competitive matchup, 38+ minutes is very much in play. Minnesota does have an excellent defender in Jaden McDaniels to throw at Doncic, but this bet is more about volume than efficiency. Doncic is always willing to take on a heavy scoring load, and that tendency only increases when things get personal. He has a well-documented rivalry with Rudy Gobert, and whenever he gets Gobert switched onto him in isolation, the shot is almost always going up. In those moments, Doncic has a habit of turning into a flamethrower from deep.

Denver is just 14-16 ATS at home this season, and with star point guard Jamal Murray listed as a game-time decision, I'll take the points with the Rockets on Wednesday night.