NBA Picks

Over the last three games, Buzz City has averaged 130 points while shooting 52.9% from the floor, and there’s no reason to think they’re going to slow down against Kings. Sacramento has the third-worst defensive rating and ranks next-to-last in opponent eFG%.

The Sacramento Kings rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Charlotte Hornets, making it tough to get to the foul line.

For all his sound and fury at the rim, Williamson is an underrated passer. He generates 6.3 potential assists per game, trickling down to an average of 3.3 dimes. He’s dished out three or more assists in 21 of his last 34 outings, including four helpers in the loss at Cleveland Saturday. Tonight’s player projections range between 3.4 and 4.4 assists for Zion.

The New York Knicks are listed as 8.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Pelicans, and I’m comfortable laying that number—I make it closer to -12. New Orleans has been starting 6'7" Herb Jones at center, which can work against teams without scoring threats at the position, but it’s a major liability against a true seven-footer like Karl-Anthony Towns—especially with Mitchell Robinson crashing the offensive glass. That size mismatch should consistently tilt the interior in the Knicks’ favor. On the other end, the Knicks have the personnel to slow down the Pelicans’ offense. OG Anunoby brings the strength and mobility to match up with Zion Williamson, which helps limit one of New Orleans’ primary advantages. There’s also a bit of added motivation with Jose Alvarado facing his former team, which makes it even less likely that the intensity drops in the closing minutes if the second unit is on the floor.

Orlando +10.5 feels like too many points against a Cleveland team that hasn’t justified big favorite roles, as they've gone a pitiful 6-21-1 ATS when laying seven or more points. The Cavs have also struggled with a rest edge going an NBA-worst 3-10 ATS in that spot, while the Magic have held their own on back-to-backs. Despite a tough stretch, Orlando should be motivated after slipping in the standings, and recent form shows these teams are closer than the line suggests.

Paolo Banchero had nine attempts from outside in Monday's loss to Indiana. He made four of those triples and has been active from outside during this slump. In fact, his long-range looks have climbed this month, averaging 4.5 3PAs (up from 3.8). The Cleveland Cavaliers rank 26th in opponent 3-point percentage and have allowed an average of almost 16 3-pointers over their last three contests. Banchero’s projections lean toward two triples, giving great value to this +150 prop.

The obvious handicap is pointing out Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic has cleared this prop in four of his last six games. 

The standard line at FanDuel is over 10.5 assists at -138, which clearly offers value, but I’d rather attack the alternate line of 12+ assists at +128 for Jokic. I price 12+ closer to -165, so there’s a significant edge on the alternate number. Jokic is averaging 12.5 assists on 19 potential assists in two games against the Phoenix Suns this season, which highlights how this matchup has been played. It’s clear that Jordan Ott is comfortable letting Jokic operate as a passer, and I expect that approach to continue—if not be amplified—on Tuesday given the current personnel. With Mark Williams out and Oso Ighodaro starting at center, the Suns simply don’t have the size to deal with Jokic one-on-one. Ighodaro is a solid backup, but he’ll need consistent help against Jokic’s strength and interior presence. That extra attention should open up passing lanes all night.