Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 18, 2026
SA
@
OKC
Mon, May 18 • 8:30 PM ET
Chet Holmgren o1.5 Total Assists (+120)
Chet Holmgren was in attack mode versus a smaller Los Angeles lineup but meets his match with Victor Wembanyama able to counter his size, speed and shooting. In their head-to-head meetings this season, Holmgren’s scoring numbers and usage plummeted against the Spurs. Holmgren will play away from the rim, in hopes of drawing Wemby out of the paint and opening the interior for the rest of OKC. The 7-footer could be used as more of a conduit for the Thunder offense, finding cutters, connecting with shooters off screen action and kickouts or dump downs to Hartenstein. His assists projections all sit north of the 1.5 O/U total, ranging from 1.6 to as high as 2.3 dimes for Game 1.
o219.5 (-110)
The Thunder are stepping into a much different matchup after facing two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams in the Suns and the Lakers. The Spurs have played at the second-fastest pace in the postseason, which has contributed to them allowing the most shot attempts per game in the playoffs. That’s a favorable setup for an OKC offense averaging a playoff-best 121.3 PPG, while San Antonio has produced 119.4 PPG on the road. Both teams are also shooting a higher percentage from three than they did during the regular season.
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