Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game March 11, 2026
MIN
@
LAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 11:00 PM ET
u234.0 (-110)
When the Minnesota Timberwolves dispatched the Los Angeles Lakers with ease in last year’s first round, it was largely a credit to how easily their defense mitigated the Lakers’ post game. Removing rim runners from Luka Doncic’s peripheral vision reduces Doncic’s overall effectiveness.
Luka Doncic o31.5 Points Scored (-115)
Luka Doncic is trading at -115 for the Over 31.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking given that I price it closer to -170. This sets up as a rivalry game between the Lakers and the Timberwolves, and with the Lakers off yesterday and another off day tomorrow, there’s little reason to expect any limitation on Doncic’s workload. In what should be a competitive matchup, 38+ minutes is very much in play. Minnesota does have an excellent defender in Jaden McDaniels to throw at Doncic, but this bet is more about volume than efficiency. Doncic is always willing to take on a heavy scoring load, and that tendency only increases when things get personal. He has a well-documented rivalry with Rudy Gobert, and whenever he gets Gobert switched onto him in isolation, the shot is almost always going up. In those moments, Doncic has a habit of turning into a flamethrower from deep.
HOU
@
DEN
Wed, Mar 11 • 10:00 PM ET
HOU +4.5 (-122)
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