Houston vs Dallas Picks & Props
HOU vs DAL Picks
NBA PicksThe Mavs offense runs through Flagg, who is averaging 17.3 field goal attempts per game - nearly four more than anyone else on Dallas.
Flagg has attempted 23 field goals in each of his last two outings, so I expect him to take matters into his own hands again tonight.
Playable up to 53%.
Amen Thompson is a formidable scorer in the paint, averaging 12.4 ppg in the interior this season.
Thompson, who's scored 20+ points in two of his last four games, will give fits to a Mavs defense that struggles to defend down low.
Play this up to 57%.
The Rockets are 5-0-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 14.2 points, and they'll do damage in the paint vs. the Mavs.
Dallas is allowing 53.2 ppg in the paint (26th), and that's not a good stylistic matchup for a Houston team that loves to attack the rim.
At 63%, the Rockets are one of my favorite trades on the board, as I make them 70% favorites even with Alperen Sengun projected to sit. Houston's win probability improves if he's cleared, but his absence isn't overly concerning against a Dallas team missing Dereck Lively and likely Santi Aldama. Daniel Gafford isn't equipped to consistently punish Houston inside, making the Rockets' switchable frontcourt a matchup advantage.
The Rockets are averaging 123 ppg, the second-best mark in the NBA, and have cashed the Over in four of five games this season. Both teams have been incredibly efficient, ranking in the top three in field goal percentage.
Durant has recorded 20+ points in four of five outings, including a season-high 30 vs. Dallas in the season opener.
HOU vs DAL Consensus Picks
62% picking Houston vs Dallas to go Over
Total PicksHOU 326, DAL 196
HOU vs DAL Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
Z. Risacher
(SF)
o7.5 Points Scored
10.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
27.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Gafford
(C)
o6.5 Points Scored
10.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
24.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
C. Capela
(C)
u6.5 Points Scored
6.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
24.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
C. Flagg
(SF)
u23.5 Points Scored
21.49 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
22.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
M. Christie
(SG)
o8.5 Points Scored
10.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
18.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Smith Jr.
(PF)
u16.5 Points Scored
15.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
17.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
K. Durant
(PF)
o24.5 Points Scored
25.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
17.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
N. Marshall
(SF)
u11.5 Points Scored
10.53 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
16.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
F. VanVleet
(PG)
o12.5 Points Scored
12.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
13.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Thompson
(SF)
u18.5 Points Scored
16.81 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.7
DIFFERENCE
11.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
M. Sasser
(PG)
u5.5 Points Scored
5.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
P. Washington
(PF)
u13.5 Points Scored
13.06 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
K. Irving
(SG)
o18.5 Points Scored
19.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-1.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
T. Eason
(PF)
o11.5 Points Scored
13.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
-7.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Z. Risacher
(SF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
5.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
21.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Smith Jr.
(PF)
o5.5 Total Rebounds
7.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
18.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Flagg
(SF)
u6.5 Total Rebounds
5.81 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
13.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Capela
(C)
o7.5 Total Rebounds
7.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
12.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Sengun
(C)
o8.5 Total Rebounds
9.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
11.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
N. Marshall
(SF)
u3.5 Total Rebounds
3.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
9.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
K. Durant
(PF)
o5.5 Total Rebounds
5.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
8.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
T. Eason
(PF)
u6.5 Total Rebounds
5.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
8.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
F. VanVleet
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
6.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
P. Washington
(PF)
u6.5 Total Rebounds
6.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-1.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
M. Christie
(SG)
u3.5 Total Rebounds
3.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-1.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Thompson
(SF)
o7.5 Total Rebounds
7.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-4.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Gafford
(C)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
6.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
K. Irving
(SG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
M. Sasser
(PG)
u2.5 Total Assists
1.58 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
18.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
F. VanVleet
(PG)
u6.5 Total Assists
5.69 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
16.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
N. Marshall
(SF)
u3.5 Total Assists
2.87 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
13.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Z. Risacher
(SF)
o0.5 Total Assists
1.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
9.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
K. Durant
(PF)
o3.5 Total Assists
4.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
9.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
P. Washington
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
9.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
T. Eason
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
9.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
M. Christie
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
8.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Flagg
(SF)
u5.5 Total Assists
5.06 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
7.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Smith Jr.
(PF)
u2.5 Total Assists
1.89 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
K. Irving
(SG)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Gafford
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-5.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Thompson
(SF)
o4.5 Total Assists
5.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-6.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
T. Eason
(PF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
20.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
K. Irving
(SG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
19.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
P. Washington
(PF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. Smith Jr.
(PF)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.05 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
C. Flagg
(SF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
F. VanVleet
(PG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
K. Durant
(PF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
2.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
0.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
M. Christie
(SG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-6.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
M. Sasser
(PG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-10.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Z. Risacher
(SF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
N. Marshall
(SF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-13.22%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 overall.
Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Mavericks last 5 games following a straight up win.
ROI Trends
HOU vs DAL Top User Picks
Houston Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wtrylika | 9-0-0 | +4500 |
| 2 | doomsday07 | 7-0-0 | +3500 |
| 3 | fishter923 | 8-1-0 | +3450 |
| 4 | stan53 | 8-2-0 | +3400 |
| 5 | puntpat | 8-2-0 | +3400 |
| 6 | Roundrobinking | 8-2-0 | +3400 |
| 7 | pokersquirrel | 8-2-0 | +3400 |
| 8 | lsbellmom | 8-2-0 | +3400 |
| 9 | chemo024 | 9-1-0 | +3400 |
| 10 | chris10305 | 7-1-0 | +2950 |
| All Rockets Money Leaders | |||