NBA Picks

I'll back the Cleveland Cavaliers at 59% at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have the skill and basketball IQ to exploit Rudy Gobert's drop coverage through two-man actions. On the other end, Cleveland's jumbo frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen should protect the paint and limit Anthony Edwards' driving lanes.

This is a tough game to price with Kon Knueppel and Coby White both questionable after missing the start of the season. Their availability will significantly impact Charlotte's outlook. Even if both play 30-plus minutes, I make Washington a 44% underdog versus a 45% market price. I'll back the Wizards, expecting at least one to sit or see limited minutes, which would create a bigger edge at the current price.

I'll take the Celtics at 85%, as I make Boston an even stronger 89% favorite. Chicago faces a tough matchup against Boston's switchable defenders, including Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh, Paul George, and Derrick White, who can pressure Josh Giddey and disrupt his playmaking. With Nic Claxton out, the Bulls also lack interior depth to handle 48 minutes of Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta on the glass.

The Miami Heat only had two losing streaks of four games or more in 2025-26, and the first didn't occur until Dec. 9. It currently sits 27th in both offense (105.1 points per 100 possessions) and defense (121.4 points per 100 possessions allowed). This is a roster that was projected to be vying for a top-five defense, with elite defenders like Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, and Davion Mitchell in the starting unit. That hasn't manifested as of yet, but that core is too stacked in that department not to get their act together sooner rather than later.

Working in the Heat's favor is the Dallas Mavericks being down key bodies, with Naji Marshall (illness) officially out and former No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg questionable as of Monday morning with a bad shoulder. Flagg's potential absence would be especially devastating, as Dallas was just 4-8 straight up whenever he was unavailable during his rookie year.

It's tough to back Phoenix, but there's value at 16% as I price the Suns as an 18% underdog against Oklahoma City, assuming both teams' starters are available. The Thunder are playing the second night of a back-to-back, and load management is possible this early in the season. Any OKC absences would boost Phoenix's chances. Devin Booker will also need to carry over his hot hand after dropping 43 points Saturday.

The Indiana Pacers are playing the second night of a back-to-back, making Tyrese Haliburton's availability and workload worth monitoring as he returns from an Achilles injury. I see a slight edge on Milwaukee at 37% if Haliburton plays, but that grows significantly if he sits. With T.J. McConnell also questionable, Indiana could be without two key offensive engines, boosting the Bucks' value.

I make Houston 68% favorites, leaving only a slight edge at the current 67% price. I'd monitor the market and look to grab 65% or 66%. The Rockets beat Atlanta on the road Saturday despite missing Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart. Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant were efficient in that matchup, and their skill sets create tough defensive assignments for the Hawks. With Houston's lead guards potentially returning, I like the Rockets' chances in the rematch.

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz are playing the second night of a back-to-back, making availability key. Zach Edey should return after sitting Sunday, but I'm watching Ty Jerome, who missed most of last season with an injury. He's Memphis' offensive engine, and a rest day would significantly hurt its chances. Assuming both starting lineups play, I see a slight edge on Utah at 53%, with more upside depending on Memphis' injury report.

Who's guarding Nikola Jokic here? The 6-foot-7 Draymond Green, a 40-year-old Al Horford, or rookie Yaxel Lendeborg? Golden State has serious roster concerns, though Stephen Curry should return after resting Saturday. Denver's defenders can blitz Curry without worrying about secondary playmaking from his supporting cast. That helps offset the Nuggets' defensive flaws, making Denver a strong play at 72%.