Boston @ Cleveland Picks & Props

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-lowest temperature on the slate at 49°. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 17.3-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best among every team playing today. Steven Kwan's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 88.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 84.3-mph in the last week's worth of games. Steven Kwan's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (9.6°) is significantly worse than his 13° figure last year.

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-lowest temperature on the slate at 49°. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 17.3-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best among every team playing today. Jose Ramirez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 91-mph average last year has dropped off to 89-mph. As it relates to his batting average, Jose Ramirez has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .277 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .250.

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-lowest temperature on the slate at 49°. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 17.3-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. In the last 7 days, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 90.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 82.8-mph in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Because of Ben Lively's large platoon split, Rafael Devers will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Kristian Campbell is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field. Progressive Field has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. In the past 7 days, Kristian Campbell's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 99.1-mph recently.

Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Brayan Rocchio will hold that advantage in today's game. Brayan Rocchio has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph to 88.1-mph over the past 7 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field has the 4th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Given Ben Lively's large platoon split, Triston Casas will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Given Ben Lively's large platoon split, Blake Sabol will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Blake Sabol has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Trevor Story has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 13.4% seasonal rate to 22.6% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Given Ben Lively's large platoon split, Wilyer Abreu will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Austin Hedges pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Austin Hedges will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .278 rate is a good deal lower than his .328 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Daniel Schneemann will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Daniel Schneemann will hold that advantage in today's game. Ranking in the 76th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.01 ft/sec this year, Daniel Schneemann is remarkably fast.

Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Angel Martinez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Angel Martinez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 88.8-mph average to last season's 86.5-mph average.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's game. Kyle Manzardo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Bo Naylor will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Batters such as Bo Naylor with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Bo Naylor will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.2% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Gabriel Arias has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Gabriel Arias will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field. Progressive Field has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Carlos Narvaez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 87.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal EV of 85.7-mph. Carlos Narvaez has been hot of late, notching a a 16% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) over the last two weeks.

Nolan Jones's BABIP talent is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nolan Jones is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 venue in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Nolan Jones will have an advantage today.