MLB Picks

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Kyle Manzardo has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 18% of the time.. The league's 4th-highest fence height (on average) can be found at Progressive Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions on the slate.. In today's matchup, Kyle Manzardo is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (85th percentile).. There has been a significant decline in Kyle Manzardo's launch angle from last season's 21.5° to 16.5° this season.

Shane Baz was fortunate to escape with only one run allowed over six frames when he faced the Rays last week. Tampa is tops in the majors in OPS over the last two weeks, and Baz is in the 15th percentile in pitching run value this year.

When it comes to his home run ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Batting from the opposite that Braxton Ashcraft throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage today.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 5th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts the 4th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Mike Trout has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Keider Montero has a pitch-to-contact profile (24th percentile K%) — great news for Trout.

The Red Sox offense isn't cashing in its baserunners, and Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider will make that doubly difficult, as the right-hander is rounding back into form. Take the Braves up to -125.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the 6th-worst venue in the majors for RHB batting average.. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects the 5th-best pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. Spencer Steer will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Spencer Steer has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 14.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.

Cam Schlittler owns a 2.60 expected ERA, top 9% of MLB, and he forces hitters into mistakes with a 95th percentile chase rate. The path against him is discipline plus loud contact, but the Kansas City Royals don’t profile that way. They are average in barrel rate at 8.5% and chase rate at 30.2%. Against a starter with few obvious holes, average is not enough. Playable to -144.

Michael McGreevy's playing with fire, and his 2.40 ERA is a mirage. The Brewers might BABIP him to death, and with Kyle Harrison on the opposite mound, Milwaukee wins by at least a couple of runs.

Joe Ryan has been outstanding in May, working to a 1.47 ERA while allowing just 10 hits over 18.1 innings. Chicago counters with Sean Burke, who’s struggled to a 5.59 ERA this month, and the White Sox have lost six of his last eight starts. Minnesota also holds a major bullpen edge, and overall they’ve been the more consistent offense lately.

The Astros own a .290 wOBA, .652 OPS, and 35.1% hard hit rate over their last six games. 

Despite getting no-hit Monday, the Rangers have fared better in each category over the same period. They are sporting a .333 wOBA, .757 OPS, and 39.4% hard hit rate.

With a pitching advantage to boot, they should rebound Tuesday night.

I'm running it back with Julio Rodríguez in what projects as the best home run-hitting environment on the board today. This is a spot that graded out as +EV at a fair price of +340. This is easily the best HR park on the slate today, and Luis Severino has struggled, like most starters, in this minor-league park. His HR/FB rate ranks in the bottom 25 among MLB starters, and that number is even worse at home. J-Rod didn’t go deep yesterday, but he entered that game slugging .667 over his last seven days with two home runs. Luke Raley at +350 was a consideration as a left-handed alternative, but J-Rod at this price is the stronger look. He is going deep in this series. 

The Under has hit in four of the last five meetings between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres. Philadelphia has stayed Under in nine of its last 11 games, while San Diego has gone Under 7.5 in three straight. Both bullpens also carry ERAs below 4.00.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Rafael Devers is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

Both teams are trending to the Under as the Rockies are 13-17 O/U on the road and the Dodgers are 10-16 O/U at home. Kyle Freeland is better away from Coors (13.6 K-BB%), while the Dodgers can use Eric Lauer for a few innings against an impotent lineup against LHP before relying on a stingy bullpen (2.46 FIP this month).

Reds starter Brady Singer has allowed three dingers in two straight starts, and 2+ homers in four of his last five. Jordan Walker has gone yard in two straight games and has feasted on right-handed pitching, batting .311 with 11 of his 15 home runs vs. righties.

Rasmussen has been a New York Yankees nightmare, posting a 1.03 ERA across eight career outings against the Bronx Bombers. This type of stat is meaningless without context, and we have it here. He's been able to do this because the Yankees are constantly reliant on their power, and Rasmussen is one of the best barrel suppression arms in baseball, sitting in the 96th percentile in such rates this season. Playbale to +100.