MLB Picks

Sonny Gray has looked sharp in two of three starts this year. That said, the  Boston hurler had a 4.28 ERA last season with poor numbers in the first inning (4.50 ERA, .256 OBA). Gray's strikeout rate has plummeted to just 15.2% and Minnesota is red-hot at the dish, posting an OPS of .839 over the last week. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have plated 6+ runs in three straight games. They face 24-year-old Mick Abel who has failed to play up to his vast potential. He had a 6.23 ERA last year and his xERA is at 7.17 this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the game's 11th-best home run hitter.. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. Target Field projects as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Extreme groundball batters like Byron Buxton usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sonny Gray.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Varsho has handled fastballs extremely well to begin the season, and Misiorowski has shown a tendency to give up hard contact when he utilizes the heater. That could set up the Jays outfielder for his third home run in four games.

Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski sits around 98 mph on his four-seamer, which he uses at a 62% rate. Despite the early-season struggles, the Toronto Blue Jays have fared well against the fastball and should match up well against the youngster. Daulton Varsho leads the Blue Jays in hits against the four-seamer with a .365 average and a 60% hard-hit rate. Varsho has recorded a knock in four straight games while batting .412 over that span.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 5th-best park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for HRs.. This game is expected to have the most humid conditions on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

When assessing his home run skill, Junior Caminero ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 5th-best park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to righties.. This game is expected to have the most humid conditions on the slate (86%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Noah Schultz throws from, Junior Caminero will have an edge today.

Let’s call it what it is—this price is simply too good to pass up on one of the premier hitters in MLB, especially in a ballpark that favors power given Tuesday’s weather forecast. José Ramírez is listed at +551 to hit a home run on Tuesday, but I make it closer to +435, which creates a clear edge and makes this a bet worth attacking. He also looked comfortable at the plate in this park on Monday, going 2-for-4 with a walk—an encouraging sign that he’s seeing the ball well. On the mound, Michael McGreevy may be off to a solid start, but his underlying splits are a concern. Left-handed hitters tagged him for a .318 average with nine home runs in just 173 at-bats last season, which sets up well for Ramírez in this matchup.

McGreevy's underlying metrics suggest Cleveland will score, while Cantillo's command issues against a right-handed heavy lineup and gusty winds blowing out mean a few free passes could turn into a run explosion in a hurry. Cleveland's bullpen is surrendering 1.61 home runs per nine. The Cardinals' pen can't miss bats. Play the Over. 

 

The Rockies are checking some home run boxes in tonight’s matchup with the Astros. Houston is dealing with injuries to its rotation, which brings in Triple-A lefty Colton Gordon. That also opens the door to a vulnerable bullpen, as the Astros are one of just two teams with a HR/9 north of 2.00. Goodman is the target in this solid indoor matchup. He’s one of the few hitters with familiarity against Gordon and has already taken him deep in just two plate appearances. He also hits lefties much better. Goodman brings legit power metrics, with one of the fastest swings in baseball at 79 mph, ranking 19th this season. The fair price sits in the +340 to +350 range, giving this +410 number clear value.

After an injury-plagued campaign in 2025, Yordan Alvarez is healthy and playing like an MVP candidate once again. He's fourth in the majors in slugging percentage (.714) and his expected slugging percentage is even higher at an incredible .821. He'll have the platoon advantage against struggling Rockies starter Michael Lorenzon tonight. Lorenzon has an ugly 6.09 xERA through three starts and is in the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and the sixth percentile in xBA (.323). Alvarez will also benefit from the 15 mph blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Daikin Park.

The Mariners and Padres each saw their offenses wake up over the weekend. Seattle averaged 7.25 runs per game in their four-game sweep of the Houston Astros, while the Padres put up an average of 7.00 runs in their sweep of the Colorado Rockies. None of that changes the fact that there’s a strong pitching matchup on tap tonight, but this total won’t be easy to get Under. In particular, San Diego comes in having played to a total of 7+ runs in six straight games. With both lineups coming into tonight’s game hitting well, I’m taking the Over.

Bryan Woo has a 2.84 ERA since the start of the 2024 season, which a minuscule WHIP of 0.908 in that span. He’s struck out 17 batters while allowing just three earned runs on 10 hits over his first 18 innings of work this season. As good as Michael King (1-1, 3.24 ERA) has been for the San Diego Padres, I like the Seattle Mariners to win behind Woo.

This matchup features two left-handed starters against lineups that have been awful vs southpaws, ranking 26th and 27th in OPS. MacKenzie Gore has been excellent (2.45 ERA) and is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA. Jeffrey Springs has been even better, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.46 WHIP, highlighted by a one-hit gem over seven innings at Yankee Stadium his last time out. Oakland is always an Under candidate as they've already scored one run or fewer six times, including each of their last two.

 

Sam Haggerty is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. 23% of the time that Sam Haggerty has started against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF fences in the league.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate.. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sam Haggerty in today's game.

Nolan McLean vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium is easily the marquee matchup of the night, and I’m backing the Mets in what could very well be an NLCS preview. The Mets are listed at +181 on Pinnacle, but I make them closer to +130, so there’s clear value at this price. While the Dodgers lineup—Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Max Muncy—typically thrives against right-handed pitching, that edge diminishes against elite arms. McLean fits that profile with his high-end stuff and impressive spin rates. He has the ability to neutralize left-handed power by burying back-foot sliders and mixing in his curveball to keep hitters off balance, which should help limit hard contact and suppress their power upside.

A team with Nolan McLean as their starting pitcher shouldn’t be priced at +186. 

The 24-year-old has a 2.23 ERA across 11 starts in the Big Leagues and has flashed elite stuff this season, ranking above the 90th percentile in xERA, xBA, and average exit velocity. 

The offense could reasonably plate several runs against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has yet to ramp up to “elite mode” with a pedestrian 3.62 xERA and 20.9% K rate in three starts.