My Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions back the home team to take Game 1 of the NLCS tonight, with Jacob Misiorowski leading the charge for the narrow 51% favorites.
Misiorowski has been lights out at home, allowing just 10 runs over his last 13 games in Milwaukee. Find out why I'm siding with the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers in my latest MLB picks ahead of first pitch at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 11.
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Dodgers vs Brewers prediction: Brewers moneyline
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I like the Milwaukee Brewers to take the series opener, and would play this to 53%.
The pitching matchup between Jacob Misiorowski and Tarik Skubal is as good as it gets, but I give Miz an ever-so-slight edge. In a game like this, splitting hairs is necessary.
Misiorowski finished in the 100th percentile in K%, 99th in xERA, and 96th in barrel rate. That is the kind of clean profile needed to best the Los Angeles Dodgers in a playoff setting.
Skubal only ranked in the 91st percentile in K%, 90th in xERA, and 65th in barrel rate.
Factor in that some key Dodgers bats like Shohei Ohtani (.243 xwOBA) and Will Smith (.086 xwOBA) are struggling, and scoring against Miz will be even more difficult.
COVERS INTEL: Jacob Misiorowski owns an unthinkable 40.6% strikeout rate at home this season, making it almost impossible to string together hits and generate any sort of sustained offense.
Dodgers vs Brewers combo
I’m combining Milwaukee on the moneyline with Skubal to allow 5+ hits and Jake Bauers to pick up a knock.
Skubal is an elite pitcher, but he finished in the 70th percentile in xBA. He is not untouchable, especially against elite offenses.
Skubal conceded at least five hits in six of eight starts against teams ranking in the Top 10 in both Contact% and K% vs. left-handed pitching. This also explains why Colby Marchio is fading Skubal, at least slightly, in his Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 1 props.
He allowed a .257 average to lefties this year while Bauers hit .273 against southpaws. Bauers is also 3-for-3 against Skubal.
Dodgers vs Brewers combo
- Jake Bauers Over 0.5 hits
- Tarik Skubal Over 4.5 hits allowed
- Brewers moneyline
Dodgers vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio is my favorite target to leave the park.
He is a lefty masher who hit .376 with a .282 ISO and .461 wOBA against fastballs and changeups thrown by southpaws. Skubal is heavily reliant on those two pitches, combining to throw them more than 70% of the time when facing right-handed hitters.
Chourio consistently generated barrels, posting a team-high 16.4% barrel rate vs. fastballs and changeups this year.
Chourio hasn’t left the park against Skubal before, but he is 3-for-9 with four hard-hit balls. There’s a track record of success.
Colby Marchio is also bullish on Chourio, picking him to go deep in his Dodgers vs. Brewers home run predictions.
Dodgers vs Brewers player prop: Jake Bauers Over 0.5 hits
There is a lot to like about Bauers. For starters, he posted a higher average, walked more, and struck out less frequently against southpaws.
Translation: he put the ball in play more often, and we need as many balls in play as possible against an elite starter and quality bullpen.
Bauers also profiles very well against Skubal’s mix. He hit .274 with a .406 wOBA vs. sinkers and fastballs, which Skubal throws nearly 70% of the time vs. lefties.
Bauers posted a .260 average or better against both left- and right-handed pitchers, so he can’t be schemed out of the game. He also leads the Brewers in wOBA vs. Dodgers relievers.
- ML/RL picks: 128-106, -3.45 units
- O/U: 121-106-6, +0.35 units
Dodgers vs Brewers weather
The roof at American Family Field will be open for Game 1. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing right-to-left across the diamond.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Dodgers 50% | Brewers 51%
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (35%) | Brewers +1.5 (66%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (46%) | Under 6.5 (55%)
Dodgers vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have cashed the moneyline in 36 of their last 50 home games for +12.80 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers.
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How to watch Dodgers vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (5-2, 2.61 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Brewers latest injuries
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