Philadelphia @ San Francisco Picks & Props

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Matt Chapman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Matt Chapman has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .240 BA is quite a bit lower than his .249 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Blake Snell throws from, Cristian Pache will have an advantage in today's game. Cristian Pache has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today. Cristian Pache's footspeed has improved this season. His 27.84 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.34 ft/sec now. Since the start of last season, Cristian Pache's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to study power) grades out in the 76th percentile at 93.9 mph.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jorge Soler ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Jorge Soler will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. In terms of his batting average, Jorge Soler has been unlucky this year. His .215 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .242. Since the start of last season, Jorge Soler's 14.7% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 92nd percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Blake Snell throws from, Nick Castellanos will have an edge in today's matchup. Nick Castellanos has been unlucky this year, posting a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .057 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alec Bohm is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Blake Snell throws from, Alec Bohm will have an edge in today's matchup. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Whit Merrifield in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Whit Merrifield will hold the platoon advantage against Blake Snell in today's game. Whit Merrifield has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today. Despite posting a .250 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Whit Merrifield has had bad variance on his side given the .050 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .300.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best batter in baseball. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Posting a .423 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Bryce Harper finds himself in the 100th percentile for offensive skills. With a .318 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bryce Harper is positioned in the 99th percentile.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the 7th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Taijuan Walker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Matos in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Since the start of last season, Luis Matos's 2.1% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 18th percentile among his peers. Luis Matos's 88.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 19th percentile since the start of last season.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, LaMonte Wade Jr. ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). LaMonte Wade Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, LaMonte Wade Jr. will have the upper hand in today's game. LaMonte Wade Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the 7th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Batting from the same side that Taijuan Walker throws from, Thairo Estrada will have a disadvantage today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Thairo Estrada's 4.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 19th percentile since the start of last season. Thairo Estrada's 85.8-mph average exit velocity is among the worst in baseball since the start of last season: 5th percentile.

Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Bryson Stott has notched a .301 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. As it relates to plate discipline, Bryson Stott's ability is quite impressive, putting up a 0.95 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 98th percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Blake Snell throws from, Johan Rojas will have an advantage today. Johan Rojas has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 29.35 ft/sec to 29.91 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Checking in at the 84th percentile, Johan Rojas sits with a .330 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Heliot Ramos will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Heliot Ramos's 14.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Heliot Ramos has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 112.7 mph (a reliable standard to study power), ranking in the 83rd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber's 16.3% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) is in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

Edmundo Sosa's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Edmundo Sosa will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Blake Snell today. Over the past two weeks, Edmundo Sosa has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .438. With a .333 BABIP since the start of last season, Edmundo Sosa finds himself in the 85th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. J.T. Realmuto will have the handedness advantage against Blake Snell in today's game. Since the start of last season, J.T. Realmuto's 11.2% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 76th percentile among his peers.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Brett Wisely will have an advantage today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Brett Wisely will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Brett Wisely has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .231 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .267 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Brett Wisely has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 23.7° mark is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (96th percentile).

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have an advantage in today's matchup. Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Mike Yastrzemski will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 94th percentile with a 19.7° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in Major League Baseball.

Patrick Bailey is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Patrick Bailey pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today. Patrick Bailey will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Patrick Bailey grades out in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (47% rate since the start of last season).

Marco Luciano has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.