We nearly swept on Friday, so let's try that again with today's MLB home run predictions.
I'm backing Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, and Ian Happ to go deep in my favorite MLB player props on Monday, June 15.
Best MLB home run props today
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Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+241)
I am in love with Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero to leave the yard this evening. The budding star draws Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Eric Lauer, who enters today with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. He also grades poorly in matchup ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.
Lauer has been struggling against right-handed hitters at home this season, allowing a 71% elevation rate. Overall, right-handed bats have posted a .504 xSLG and .349 xwOBA against him, while also producing a 12% barrel rate against the lefty. In addition, 54% of Lauer’s pitch mix is valued below league average, per FanGraphs. Caminero also brings the highest arsenal coverage in this matchup, covering 72.5% of Lauer’s pitch mix.
On top of that, over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws, Caminero is hitting .304 with a .902 OPS, while generating nearly 60% hard contact and a 12% barrel rate in that span.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+294)
New York Mets slugger Juan Soto has finally snapped out of that cold streak he was dealing with over the last few weeks, and I think it is time we can trust him again.
In his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns an .868 OPS, with 59% hard contact and a 9.1% barrel rate. Soto also carries the highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated bats this evening, covering 99.3% of Cincinnati Reds starter Chase Burns’ pitch mix.
Burns has been allowing a ton of elevation to left-handed hitters this season. At home, those hitters have been elevating the ball nearly 70% of the time. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has allowed a 12.9% barrel rate and a 70.9% elevation rate, while also carrying a .347 xBA and .679 xSLG against.
With the cold stretch seemingly behind him, this looks like a spot where Soto can do damage tonight in Great American Small Park.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, SNY
Home run pick: Ian Happ (+344)
Colorado Rockies right-hander Michael Lorenzen has been getting tormented by left-handed hitters this season, especially on the road. In that split, they are batting .418 with a .716 SLG and a .499 wOBA. On top of that, they are producing 45.5% hard contact and nearly a 70% fly ball rate.
I think it is a must that we back Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ to go yard this evening. Why Happ? Not only does he have an elite rating in this matchup over on Batters-Box, but he also owns the highest arsenal coverage with an elite rating.
He is batting .296 with a 1.054 OPS and .704 SLG, while posting 47.5% hard contact and a 10% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
With Happ sitting at 76.3% arsenal coverage against a pitcher with every single pitch in his mix graded below average, he looks like a must-back to leave the yard this evening on the North Side.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee, COLR
- HR picks: 58-189-15, +20.60 units
Today’s HR parlay
 Junior Caminero |
Bet Now +5865 |
 Juan Soto |
|
 Ian Happ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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