Looking to start the week with a winner?
Tonight's MLB player props feature a pair of hitters in favorable matchups and one of baseball's premier strikeout artists at plus money.
From a high-upside K prop to two bats poised to make an impact, here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, June 15.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Zack Wheeler |
Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +109 |
 Juan Soto |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -115 |
 Junior Caminero |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -113 |
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+109)
It has been a minute since a strikeout prop has grabbed my attention enough to back it, but Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler finds himself in a great spot to shove against a struggling Miami Marlins lineup that punched out 10 times on Sunday. Some may view this as a clear bounce back spot for Miami, but I see plenty of reasons to expect another swing-happy performance.
For starters, five Marlins hitters own a strikeout rate of at least 27.9% on the road this season, with four of those bats sitting north of 30.6%. Wheeler's trends are just as enticing. According to Batters-Box, he has recorded 7+ strikeouts in 68.75% of his 32 elite-rated matchups. When carrying an elite strikeout rating, that number jumps to 76% across a 25-game sample.
At home this season, Wheeler owns a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 36.1% chase rate outside the zone. At plus money, this is worth a play. I would take it down to even money, but do not pay juice for it.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, MIAM
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-115)
An extremely tough price to pass up for one of the most dangerous bats in baseball, a hitter who is always on base, always a threat to score, and always a threat to collect a hit. New York Mets star Juan Soto to go over 1.5 HRR at -115 is a steal in my opinion.
Especially when he clears this prop nearly 60% of the time when sporting an elite rating. That comes across a 220 elite rating sample size. Soto was in a bit of a slump over the last two weeks, but has since turned it around. In his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns an .868 OPS with a 23.3% walk rate, 59% hard contact, and a 9.1% barrel rate. Not to mention, he has a 99.3% arsenal coverage against Cincinnati Reds starter Chase Burns.
Burns has been allowing a ton of elevation to left-handed hitters this season. At home, those hitters have been elevating the ball nearly 70% of the time. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has allowed a 12.9% barrel rate and a 70.9% elevation rate, while also carrying a .347 xBA and .679 xSLG against.
Burns does not walk a lot of lefties, but he also is not facing Soto-level hitters every day. I prefer the built-in safety of the HRR prop over the bases market here. Comfortable taking this up to -130.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, SNY
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-113)
The very first prop I locked in today was for Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero to go over 1.5 total bases, as he draws Los Angeles Dodgers left hander Eric Lauer, who enters today with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. He also grades poorly in matchup ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.
Lauer has been struggling against right handed hitters at home this season, allowing a 71% elevation rate. Overall, right handed bats have posted a .504 xSLG and .349 xwOBA against him, while also producing a 12% barrel rate against the southpaw. In addition to that, 54% of Lauer's pitch mix is valued below league average, per FanGraphs.
Caminero has been handling left handed pitching well this season, hitting .271 with a .457 SLG and .871 OPS. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he is hitting .304 with a .902 OPS, while generating nearly 60% hard contact and a 12% barrel rate in that span.
I am not the biggest fan of paying juice for bases props, but I would take this down to minus 120 at the most.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
- Prop picks: 218-376-35, +9.10 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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