Let's kick off a new week with a collection of MLB picks from our team of baseball experts.
Our headline attraction involves getting the Tampa Bay Rays at +156 to win straight up against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Polymarket.
With Nick Martinez on the bump, you might think L.A. has the edge. But dig a little deeper, and you'll see that's not necessarily the case on Monday, June 15.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: TB ML |
+156 |
 Neil Parker: CIN ML |
-133 |
 Joe Osborne: LAA ML |
+117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 39¢ (+156) at Polymarket
The Tampa Bay Rays are trading at 39 cents on the moneyline, and that's simply too big a number. I make them closer to 45-cent underdogs in this matchup.
At first glance, Nick Martinez appears to be in a difficult spot against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup loaded with left-handed hitters. However, his elite circle changeup is built to combat left-handed bats and negate a significant on-paper platoon advantage.
The pitch currently carries a +9 run value and features a sharp fade down and away from lefties, making it difficult for hitters to pull the ball with authority. That movement helps suppress power, generate weak contact, and neutralize one of the Dodgers' biggest strengths.
Because Martinez has the perfect weapon to attack this type of lineup, I believe this matchup is much closer than the market suggests, making the Rays a valuable underdog at the current price.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: ESPN
Neil Parker's expert pick: Reds moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
There’s a sizable pitching edge for the Cincinnati Reds tonight, with Chase Burns establishing himself as an elite righty and sporting a tidy 2.95 xERA and 3.21 xFIP across 13 starts.
He’s held opposing hitters to the fifth-lowest squared-up swing rate among qualified starting pitchers, and the New York Mets rank 28th in wOBA against righties for the season.
Of course, New York is sending Tobias Myers to the bump for just his third start of the year after primarily working as a reliever, so the Mets will rely on a bullpen that’s been tasked with 58 1/3 innings over the past six days.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SNY, Reds.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Angels moneyline
Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket
The Los Angeles Angels look like a rare live road underdog in this matchup.
Walbert Urena has been outstanding to begin his career, allowing one earned run or fewer in six of his last eight starts since the beginning of May. That sets up well against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that has struggled versus right-handed pitching lately, ranking near the bottom of the league in OPS over the last two weeks.
The Angels are in much better form offensively and should capitalize against Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5.19 ERA and is coming off a pathetic seven-earned-run outing against Miami.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: ABTV, Diamondbacks.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tigers moneyline | +110 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Astros predictions | |
| Cubs -1.5 | -105 |
| Read analysis in our Rockies vs. Cubs predictions | |
| Nationals moneyline | -130 |
| Read analysis in our Royals vs. Nationals predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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