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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 13, 2026.
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CHC
@
WAS
Thu, Aug 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Crow-Armstrong enters today with an elite 12.3% barrel rate, a career-high 48.6% hard-hit rate, and a .473 xSLG. Putting the icing on the cake here is PCA's splits - he's hit 20 of his 27 homers against righties this season. Let's see one fly against Cavalli today.
Total
o8.5 (-116)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
With the Cubs' offense going up against Cavalli, who's prone to the long ball, the Over is the only play today. Not only has the ball been flying off his arm, but Nationals Park is home to the 10th-most homers and third-highest xwOBAcon this year.
PHI
@
MIN
Thu, Aug 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-107)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The over is the play in this highlighted Netflix matchup, with both offenses heating up and both pitchers showing vulnerability to hard contact. The Twins have posted a 119 wRC+, .340 wOBA and .756 OPS over their last six games, while the Phillies own a 115 wRC+, .344 wOBA and .761 OPS during that same stretch. Philadelphia has also struck out just 15.9% of the time. With both lineups swinging well and humidity sitting above 90%, the conditions should be favorable for offense. Add the national spotlight, and I am expecting fireworks from Dyersville.
Moneyline
MIN (-103)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Field of Dreams Game sets up as a battle between two hot offenses, but I believe the Twins have the pitching edge. Taj Bradley has quietly put together a strong season, sporting a 3.76 ERA, 3.55 xERA and 1.25 WHIP. Aaron Nola, meanwhile, has struggled, owning a 1.45 WHIP while allowing plenty of hard contact. Both offenses enter with a wRC+ above 115 and a wOBA above .337, so I expect plenty of fireworks from start to finish. However, if Bradley can find his rhythm and consistently hit his spots, I think he can limit Philadelphia enough for Minnesota to secure the win.
TEX
@
LAA
Thu, Aug 13 • 10:07 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (-148)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Strikeouts Thrown
Jacob deGrom u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+101)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The Rangers are keeping the lid on Jacob deGrom, and getting to seven punchouts is going to be damn hard to do. The right-hander might have a 15-out cap on him right now, as he has not gotten over that number in five straight starts. He was at just 88 pitches last game after five innings and didn't come back out. To me, that sounds like a blueprint for an oft-injured pitcher the Rangers need healthy if they are going to make the playoffs. The throttle started in July, and since then, he has 29 Ks in 23 innings. However, he has gone Over this total just twice in five starts and has thrown 88, 91, 90, 97 and 80 pitches. He's going to have to be mighty efficient to get seven of his 15 outs via the K. At plus money on the Under, the risk is low to see if he has an innings cap. I'm betting this down to -115.
MIL
@
LAD
Thu, Aug 13 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The Brewers have only two hitters in their lineup who are actually producing right now, and that's Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio. I'm avoiding the latter today, as he's dealing with a thumb issue and has been pinch-hit for recently. That leaves Bauers, who is 100 points longer and gets a good HR matchup against Roki Sasaki. Sasaki is pitching well, but he's still giving up long balls. Much like Shota Imanaga earlier this week, Sasaki is a guy who, when he does get hit, gets hit hard—and Bauers can do damage against righties. The 10-mph winds blowing out to his pull side are just another layer of confirmation. I'd play this to +420 today.
Outs Recorded
Roki Sasaki o16.5 Outs Recorded (+102)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The market is moving heavily toward this Over, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closed at 17.5. Roki Sasaki, the roller-coaster pitcher, has gone four straight starts allowing two or fewer runs, which is his best four-game stretch of the season. He's a K-per-inning guy who doesn't allow many hits. Command can be an issue, but pitching on his own mound is always an advantage. When Sasaki is on, it's a beautiful thing, and I think the market moving toward the Over, coupled with his recent form, makes this the right side at this price and down to -115. The Milwaukee offense has hit a lull and ranks in the bottom 10 this month, which only helps. Sasaki's arrow is pointing up right now.
STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
