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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 10, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.12 |
+105 
|
o8.0 -125 
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.21 |
-115 
|
u8.5 -114 
|
-1.5 +160
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 8-0 in Martinezs last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
- Braves are 5-0 in Perezs last 5 home starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+241
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+161
|
o8.5 -108
|
+1.5 -130 
|
|
5.31 |
-188 
|
u8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +114
|
Houston
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 vs. National League East.
Philadelphia
- Over is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Wheelers last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Phillies are 8-1 in Wheelers last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+115
|
o6.5 -114
|
+1.5 -210 
|
|
3.59 |
-125
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +188
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Rangers last 6 vs. American League West.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-2 in Mariners last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
o1.5+164
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.67 |
+275 
|
o8.5 -122
|
+2.5 -120
|
|
5.97 |
-320
|
u9.0 -120
|
-2.5 +115
|
Colorado
- Over is 4-0 in Feltners last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Feltners last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Feltners last 4 starts overall.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Yankees last 6 vs. National League West.
Top Projection
Max Fried o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
o5.5+115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+100
|
o7.5 -114
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.25 |
-108
|
u8.0 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+210
TB
@
ATL
Thu, Sep 10 • 12:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Junior Caminero has the contact profile to leave the yard, with two homers, a .304 ISO, a 58.8% hard-hit rate, and a 17.6% barrel rate over his last six games. Pérez’s hard-contact issues and Atlanta’s homer-prone bullpen give him multiple paths.
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Over 8.5 is mostly about bullpen volatility. Atlanta’s relief corps has been vulnerable to homers, and Tampa Bay’s pen has been even shakier by xERA. Even with Atlanta’s offense cold, both teams have enough late-game scoring paths to clear this number.
HOU
@
PHI
Thu, Sep 10 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-best field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.
Total Bases
Trea Turner o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 20th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trea Turner is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-best field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.
TEX
@
SEA
Thu, Sep 10 • 4:10 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (+112)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Texas Rangers are trading at 47% on Polymarket, and that's a number I'm buying because I price the Rangers closer to a 52% favorite. That's a sizable edge compared to what we typically see in this market. The middle of the Mariners' lineup, including hitters like Cal Raleigh and Dominic Canzone, features steep uppercut swings designed to get the ball in the air. However, Jacob deGrom's high-velocity fastball has late riding life at the letters, which is a perfect pitch to neutralize those uppercut swings, either producing routine popups or a complete whiff. The Mariners will try to stack their lineup with seven left-handed hitters to counter the right-handed deGrom, but that doesn't give them an advantage by any means. deGrom is equally tough on lefties as he is on righties, thanks to his ability to attack their hands with his fastball and bury his back-foot slider.
Total Bases
Danny Jansen o1.5 Total Bases (+280)
Projection 1.11
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the league, T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. This contest is forecasted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among every team in action today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Seattle's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Danny Jansen, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
COL
@
NYY
Thu, Sep 10 • 7:05 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Fried o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Projection 6.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Max Fried in the 77th percentile among all SPs in the majors.. Tallying 92 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Max Fried falls in the 78th percentile.. The Colorado Rockies have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck).. Austin Wells, the Yankees's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Max Fried has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters today.
Total RBIs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+105)
Projection 0.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The #9 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
PIT
@
CHW
Thu, Sep 10 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CHW (-109)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I got this at 52% and have the fair price closer to 54%. The White Sox have already dropped both games of this series, and getting swept should provide plenty of motivation. There might be some interest in the Pirates with the Sox's starter, Hagen Smith, making his first start, but he's been a nasty lefty out of the bullpen this year, with nine scoreless outings in 10 games and 23 Ks over 16 innings. Jared Jones looks like a pitcher who struggles on visiting mounds, with a 4.0 BB/9 away from home compared to 2.6 at PNC Park. His road WHIP is also half a point higher away from Pittsburgh. I see this as a 50/50 game on a neutral field, and home-field advantage is worth at least another 2%, or 20 points, to me. The White Sox are fighting to hold onto the AL Central lead, while Pittsburgh has already secured the series and Chicago has one more chance to avoid the sweep.
Total Bases
Konnor Griffin o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Konnor Griffin as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP talent.. Konnor Griffin has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. The #6 field in the game for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for dingers.. This contest is predicted to have the 12th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
