MLB Picks

Thornton allowed 1.7 homers per nine innings in AAA this season. He has limited homers in the MLB thus far but there’s no reason that should last, especially against an Atlanta Braves team sitting fourth in homers on the year.

Meanwhile, the New York Mets rank 11th in wOBA and 13th in OPS during the month of July.

Noah Schultz may be a towering 6-foot-10 left-handed starter for the Chicago White Sox who throws from an uncomfortable three-quarter arm slot, but I think his height and delivery could actually be a disadvantage on Monday. This Yankees lineup should be well-equipped to exploit it. The right-handed bats they'll likely mix into the lineup against the left-handed Schultz—players like Jose Caballero, Anthony Volpe, and Jasson Domínguez—can all run, and they aren't the only stolen-base threats on the roster. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has 27 stolen bases this season. When you're 6-foot-10, getting the ball to home plate quickly isn't always easy, and I think this version of the Yankees' offense can take advantage of that weakness by putting pressure on Schultz and getting the running game going. The Yankees are trading as a 58-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I believe they should be closer to a 63-cent favorite.

Seiya Suzuki has been one of the best hitters in baseball against left handed pitching, making him a strong target against Matthew Liberatore. Over his last 60 at-bats versus southpaws, Suzuki owns a 46.1% hard hit rate, 12.8% barrel rate, 74.4% elevation rate, .680 slugging percentage, and 1.097 OPS. Liberatore has also struggled against right handed hitters, allowing a 42.5% hard hit rate, 72.5% elevation rate, .337 xBA, .501 xSLG, and .417 xwOBA over his last 60 faced. With triple digit temperatures expected, the conditions favor another productive night for the Cubs offense.

Willson Contreras finds himself in an outstanding home run spot against Athletics right hander Jack Perkins. Perkins has been crushed by right handed hitters, allowing a 3.00 HR/9 and 7.50 ERA over the last 30 righties he has faced, while giving up plenty of loud contact. Contreras enters the matchup swinging one of the hottest bats in the Red Sox lineup, posting a .320 batting average, .520 SLG, and .953 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against right handed pitching. Add in the hitter friendly conditions in Sacramento with temperatures in the mid 90s, and this is one of my favorite longball looks of the night.

Bryce Eldridge is in an excellent spot to deliver against Brandon Sproat on Monday night. The Giants slugger carries an elite Batters-Box rating into the matchup while covering 80.2% of Sproat's pitch mix. Eldridge has also been scorching right handed pitching, posting a .583 SLG, 1.016 OPS, and .291 ISO over his last 30 plate appearances, along with a 69.2% hard hit rate and 15.4% barrel rate. Sproat has struggled against left handed hitters, allowing plenty of quality contact and very few ground balls. With both the matchup and current form working in his favor, Eldridge is set up for a strong extra base performance.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.