MLB Picks

Toronto’s current lineup owns a .339 batting average, earning 28 hits against the Yankee starter through four games, profiling well against his aggressive strike-throwing style and pitch mix. Schlittler has a high zone rate and uses a mix of four-seamers, cutters, and sinkers. As a team, the Blue Jays own a .272 average (8th) with a 41% hard-hit rate (5th) against these pitches. Schlittler has eclipsed this hit total in 3-of-4 career starts against Toronto, with the lone other start only lasting 1 2/3 innings, where he still gave up five hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 8th-best batter in the league as it relates to his batting average talent.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Nationals Park has the 7th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for long-balls.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 93°.. Julio Rodriguez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph EV.

Randy Vasquez has allowed a .276 average, .359 xwOBA, and ranks in the 19th percentile in xSLG against left-handed bats.

That sets up well for Samuel Basallo. The talented lefty has hit .270 against right-handed pitching and is a 95th percentile hitter in xSLG.

Play to -145.

Spencer Horwitz has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) but may find it hard to clear the league's 10th-deepest LF fences today.. Over the last week, Spencer Horwitz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.. Spencer Horwitz has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 78.9-mph over the last 7 days.. In the past 7 days, Spencer Horwitz's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.9%.. Despite posting a .372 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Spencer Horwitz has had positive variance on his side given the .043 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Fenway Park projects as the #5 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

Los Angeles Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting batters to chase on 34.3% of their swings while maintaining a walk rate of just 5.1%. He’s also generating a 47.3% ground ball rate, which plays well against a Chicago White Sox lineup that hits grounders 44.2% of the time. The Dodgers are the pick to cover the run line, and I’d take them to do so at -130 or better.

Atlanta has avoided extended losing streaks all season and continues to produce offensively despite Ronald Acuña Jr.'s absence. The Braves have scored at least five runs in four of their last six games, while Sean Manaea enters his first start of the season with a 5.02 ERA. If the run line stays above +150, Atlanta -1.5 is the play.

Michael Soroka owns a 9-4 NRFI record and a 3.00 xERA across his last two appearances. Cincinnati is batting just .222 in the first inning and hasn't scored in six straight games, while Arizona has also failed to score in the opening frame in three consecutive contests.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for left-handed BABIP.. The 6th-shallowest RF fences among all parks are found in Progressive Field.. Kevin McGonigle has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, checking in at the 97th percentile with a 0.95 K/BB rate.

This is a matchup of two pitchers that are trending towards different directions by the season's end, and I'm backing the Kansas City Royals, who have the better pitcher by a sizable gap in this matchup. I'd play them to -130.

 

The Brewers rank fourth in OPS against right-handed pitchers, and Nola has conceded at least three runs in seven of eight starts when facing Top-15 opponents in OPS. Look for the Brewers bats to lead the way. Play to -150.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Athletics with a 26.3% underlying K%.. Kyle Freeland's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.6% vs. 60.3% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

The Chicago moneyline is too lopsided to earn. If it gets down to -110, it might be worth taking back those 1.5 runs. However, lately the Giants have only won when they score 10+ runs, and you'll lose either way if that happens.

It's not likely to happen against Brown, who has led Chicago to wins in four of his six starts and posted an ERA on par with Ohtani, the Miz, and Cristopher Sanchez. His underlying metrics are even better. Brown's breaking stuff is in the 100th percentile in MLB, thanks to a knuckle curve with a 44.8 whiff rate.

Oswald Peraza has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for hitters.. Among every team today, the worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Oswald Peraza will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.