Another busy slate across the Majors means I've found more value in the home run market.
My MLB player props HR analysis for today's action will feature Shohei Ohtani and Alec Burleson.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 13.
Best MLB home run props today
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Shohei Ohtani
Alec Burleson
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+298)
Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is finally starting to find his power stroke. He's slugged three home runs in his last six games, carrying an impressive .417 ISO and 58.8% hard hit rate during that span.
Ohtani will face Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke this afternoon, and the matchup plays in his favor. Burke has allowed 1.89 HR/9 across his last two appearances, and 45.5% of his contact in those outings was in the air. 20% left the yard.
Nearly 40% of Ohtani's contact is in the air on the road this season. He consistently gets the ball in the air, and Burke's recent tendency to allow fly balls and home runs creates an appealing matchup.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SportsNet LA
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+690)
Alec Burleson is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He's gone deep in three consecutive games, and he has an astounding 52.2% hard hit rate and 26.1% barrel rate over his last six games. Additionally, Burleson also has a .560 ISO.
Minnesota Twins starter Connor Prielipp has thrown the ball relatively well lately, but what stands out to me is that he's allowed over 50% of his contact against left-handed batters in the air. That is dangerous against a hitter like Burleson, who possesses a 40% HR/FB rate during this hot streak.
I'll play this pick up to +500.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Twins.TV
- HR picks: 9-63, -18.56 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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