MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #1 field in the majors for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 2nd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Austin Riley has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 93.4-mph in the past week's worth of games.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 19th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for bats.. Paxton Schultz will have the handedness advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's game.

These are two tantalizing starters: Taj Bradley has a 108 Stuff+, whereas Jared Jones hits 100 mph on the radar gun and had a 3.18 botERA last we saw him in 2024. The main concern is the weather (hot, wind blowing out), but that's mitigated at PNC park (second-lowest park factor for home runs).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in a prime spot Friday night against Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and has consistently produced in these spots away from home, recording 2+ bases in 50% of elite road matchups. Guerrero also owns the highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated hitters on today’s slate, matching up extremely well against Rogers’ pitch mix. 

Max Meyer and Freddy Peralta have been dominant in the first inning all season, making this a strong NRFI spot. Meyer owns a 9-2 NRFI record and has limited the Mets to a .094 average, while Peralta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 10 straight starts. Both offenses also struggle to score early.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Progressive Field ranks as the #5 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Willson Contreras pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run ability, Jo Adell ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 4th-best park in the majors for RHB home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, Tropicana Field's LF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the worst among all the teams in action today.

The St. Louis Cardinals are underdogs despite being the home team and being better over the last 10. Two of the last three times St. Louis has allowed fewer than five runs came in Andre Pallante starts.

His improved pitch mix has paid dividends. In an even matchup with a more reliable starter, I’d take St. Louis and its plus-money odds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colson Montgomery in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Colson Montgomery is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #5 park in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Colson Montgomery will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Troy Melton today.. Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

Offense has been hard to find for both Kansas City and Texas lately, which supports another NRFI play. Stephen Kolek has yet to allow a first-inning run this season, while MacKenzie Gore owns an 8-3 NRFI record. With both lineups struggling early, a scoreless first inning is likely.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Coleman Crow today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Yordan Alvarez has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 18.2% seasonal rate to 30% in the last week.

Rafael Devers is in an elite spot tonight against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field, but instead of laying juice on traditional props like total bases or HRR, there is more value attacking his ceiling outcome. Rather than paying steep prices for safer markets, sprinkling on Devers to record a double and a home run offers far better upside at plus money. If Devers is going to do damage in this matchup, the expectation is that it comes in loud fashion. Coors Field only adds to that potential, and when a home run just misses, it often turns into a double off the wall anyway.

When you’re cold, it’s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York’s Aaron Judge. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer. This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT’s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year. His 2.2 HR/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs across eight at-bats against Severino.

The #2 venue in the game for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this game forecasts the lowest temperature on the slate today at 56°.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Corbin Carroll today.. Over the last 7 days, Corbin Carroll's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.4%.

This spot makes for an appealing Under as both bullpens are fully rested following Thursday’s off day. Philadelphia, which has ace Zack Wheeler on the bump, has a 2.00 SIERA and 28.9 K-BB% in relief over the last 20 days. LA holds a 2.94 FIP in that span.

 

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.