MLB Picks

Isolating opponents who sit Top-20 in ISO and hard hit rate against right-handed pitching, Nolan McLean has posted a 5.30 ERA and allowed 1.45 HR/9.

Nick Lodolo’s outputs are even more alarming. He is sporting a 5.91 ERA and giving up 2.11 HR/9 at home this season.

Expect plenty of offense in this one and bet the Over to -125.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the second-best home run park on the board today, per Ballpark Pal. The Phillies have a home run edge against Sandy Alcantara, who owns the 18th-worst HR/9 rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days and doesn't generate many ground balls, with a 36.3% rate. Philadelphia should get plenty of balls in the air, and somehow Alec Bohm is still paying a silly +940 to keep raking. Bohm has been cruising at home in June with a 1.046 OPS. He has three home runs over his last 45 plate appearances and went deep again last night. Those previous home run prices were all shorter than +700. Where else are you going to find a cleanup hitter at this number? Bohm also owns the second-best slugging percentage on the team over the last two weeks. He's seen Alcantara 32 times in his career and has hit .344 with an .851 OPS in that respectable sample. I have this fair price closer to +650.

This is one of my favorite YRFI spots on the board. Giants starter Adrian Houser enters the day as the worst pitcher on Batters-Box and has struggled mightily in the first inning, posting a 9.00 ERA while allowing opponents to slash .302/.409/.698 through 13 starts. Braves right-hander Grant Holmes is not in much better shape, carrying the third-worst pitcher rating and a 4.83 first-inning ERA. With seven strongly rated Braves bats, five highly rated Giants bats, and a combined nine elite-rated hitters in this matchup, there is plenty of firepower to cash a first-inning run.

Shohei Ohtani has allowed one earned run or fewer in all 12 of his regular-season home starts since joinging the Dodgers and owns a 1.06 ERA this season. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in OPS against righties over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in six of his last nine starts and gets a Dodgers lineup that's struggled badly against left-handed pitching lately. The Rays have also gone Under in seven of their last eight road games.

Backing the Brewers to get to Gavin Williams is one of my favorite looks on the board. Milwaukee has been outstanding at American Family Field, averaging more than three first five inning runs per game, while their offense ranks near the top of baseball in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and contact rate over the last 12 games. Williams enters with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's recent ratings and continues to allow plenty of hard contact and elevated contact, particularly on the road. With Milwaukee featuring five elite-rated bats, asking this lineup to plate at least three runs feels like a very doable.

It was just last weekend that games in Sacramento were carrying totals as high as 14.5. Tonight, we're getting a total of 10, even though the hitting conditions are once again ideal with double-digit winds blowing out to the home run alley in right-center field. Last night's game produced another four home runs at Sutter Health Park, and there is plenty of reason to expect more offense today. Pittsburgh starter Braxton Ashcraft struggles to keep the ball on the ground, posting a 39% groundball rate, while Athletics starter Aaron Civale is coming off the IL and owns the eighth-worst groundball rate among MLB starters along with the 28th-worst HR/9. If the starters don't give up runs, the bullpens can help. This matchup features the fourth- and fifth-worst bullpens in baseball by ERA over the last two weeks.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.