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MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
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Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 14, 2026.
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STL
@
CHC
Fri, Aug 14 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Hits
Alex Bregman u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 14th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Wrigley Field ranks as the #21 stadium in the game for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Alex Bregman's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 94.6-mph figure last year has dropped to 91.2-mph.. In the last week's worth of games, Alex Bregman's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 91.2 mph to 86.6 mph.. Based on Statcast metrics, Alex Bregman ranks in the 24th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .230.
Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most humidity on the slate (88%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Pete Crow-Armstrong has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.
MIA
@
CIN
Fri, Aug 14 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as baseball's 20th-best home run hitter.. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The #4 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 85°.. Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Matt McLain ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 85°.. Matt McLain has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Matt McLain will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
BOS
@
PIT
Fri, Aug 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for righty BABIP.. This game is projected to have the 4th-most humidity on the slate today (76%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Jake Bennett throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will have the upper hand today.
Total Hits
Adley Rutschman u0.5 Total Hits (+182)
Projection 0.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Adley Rutschman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.. Dingers are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest in the league.. The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will bat from his bad side (0) today against Bubba Chandler. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Adley Rutschman in today's game.. Adley Rutschman's quickness has decreased this season. His 26.73 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.2 ft/sec now.
CHW
@
DET
Fri, Aug 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Comerica Park is the 3rd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 81°.
Total RBIs
Drew Romo o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
Projection 0.34
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 81°.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today.
SD
@
CLE
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Luis Campusano u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Luis Campusano is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today's game.. 12% of the time that Luis Campusano has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.. Gavin Williams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Campusano in today's game.. Luis Campusano hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Campusano in today's game.
Total RBIs
Travis Bazzana o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Progressive Field grades out as the #2 venue in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which tends to lead to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Travis Bazzana will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Travis Bazzana will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. In the past week, Travis Bazzana's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.3% up to 14.3%.
WAS
@
NYM
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Daylen Lile's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Daylen Lile is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.. Daylen Lile will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Stock today... and the cherry on top, Stock has a large platoon split.. Daylen Lile has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
Abimelec Ortiz o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Abimelec Ortiz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.. Abimelec Ortiz will hold the platoon advantage against Robert Stock in today's game... and even better, Stock has a large platoon split.. Abimelec Ortiz has been hot in recent games, notching a a 22.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) in the past week.
NYY
@
TOR
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #6 ballpark in the majors for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Bieber throws from, Trent Grisham will have an edge today.. Trent Grisham has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Toronto Blue Jays has just 1 same-handed RP.
Total RBIs
Andres Gimenez o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Rogers Centre ranks as the #6 ballpark in the majors for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage over Gerrit Cole in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Andres Gimenez will hold that advantage today.. Over the past 7 days, Andres Gimenez's 60% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.2%.
AZ
@
ATL
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:15 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Geraldo Perdomo o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the game for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. In the last week, Geraldo Perdomo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.7-mph over the course of the season to 92.5-mph recently.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Mike Yastrzemski o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Truist Park projects as the #5 ballpark in the majors for overall LHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Truist Park's CF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
SEA
@
HOU
Fri, Aug 14 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Daulton Varsho u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 6th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 2nd-worst park in baseball for lefty batting average.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which often leads to worse offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest RF fences today.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Randy Arozarena o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Sporting a .370 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Randy Arozarena is ranked in the 93rd percentile.. With a .291 batting average this year, Randy Arozarena finds himself in the 94th percentile.
KC
@
LAA
Fri, Aug 14 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Hits
Wade Meckler u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
23% of the time that Wade Meckler has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Angel Stadium as the 5th-worst park in the league for lefty batting average.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.. Wade Meckler is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Kansas City (#3-best on the slate).. Wade Meckler's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 91.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 81.1-mph over the past week.
Total Bases
Josh Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-235)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Lowe is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game.. This year, Josh Lowe has been pulled from the game early in 24% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. In today's matchup, Josh Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.2% rate (83rd percentile).. Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.
MIL
@
LAD
Fri, Aug 14 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
LAD (-175)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
This is just an all-around tough matchup for Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser, who struggles to work deep into games and will most likely force Pat Murphy to dip into his middle-relief arms. Gasser is a deceptive but low-velocity lefty who relies heavily on his slider when pitching to right-handed hitters. If he isn't locating that pitch, he's going to be leaving sliders over the heart of the plate to a lineup that features a ton of pull power from the right side against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers' patience and ability to work counts give them an advantage, especially with Gasser's tendency to exit games early and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound. The Dodgers are trading as a 64-cent favorite on Polymarket, and I have them priced as a 67-cent favorite, which means there's an edge we can exploit.
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best hitter in the league.. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. Among all major league stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.
COL
@
SF
Fri, Aug 14 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak u1.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
22% of the time that Mickey Moniak has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The #6 ballpark in the game for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. Among all major league parks, the highest fences are at Oracle Park.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-most suitable for pitching on the slate.
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+189)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 14th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball hitters like Hunter Goodman generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landen Roupp.. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.
STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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