MLB Picks

Juan Soto looks to be out of his recent slump, showing strong signs of life against right handed pitching. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he has posted an .868 OPS, along with strong quality of contact metrics including 59% hard hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate. He also grades out with elite pitch coverage against Chase Burns, handling his entire arsenal. Burns has struggled with left handed hitters, allowing high barrel and elevation rates with poor expected results. This sets up a favorable matchup for Soto in Cincinnati tonight.

Colorado right-hander Michael Lorenzen has struggled badly with left-handed hitters this season, especially on the road where they are batting .418 with a .716 slugging percentage and a .499 wOBA. That split also comes with 45.5% hard contact and nearly a 70% fly ball rate, which is a tough recipe to survive.

That sets up Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ in a strong spot to go deep. Happ grades as the top hitter in this matchup with elite arsenal coverage. He is hitting .296 with a 1.054 OPS and .704 SLG, plus strong contact and barrel numbers, making him a prime home run target tonight.

The Angels are worth a look as a road underdog tonight behind the red-hot Walbert Ureña. The rookie right-hander has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last eight starts, while Arizona has struggled badly against right-handed pitching of late. Los Angeles also enters in better offensive form and gets a favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5.19 ERA and was tagged for seven earned runs in his last outing.

The ballpark and weather conditions at Sutter Health Park play a major role in how I'm handicapping this matchup. With temperatures expected to reach 93 degrees, sunny skies, and a wind blowing out toward left-center field, the environment should be very favorable for hitters. JT Ginn, the Athletics' starting pitcher, relies heavily on his sinker to generate ground balls and keep the ball in the infield. On the other side, Pirates starter Jared Jones is a high-velocity arm who works at the top of the strike zone. When he misses his spots, however, he's prone to giving up plenty of fly balls. In these conditions, that's a dangerous profile. A routine fly ball that might die on the warning track at PNC Park can suddenly carry over the fence in Sacramento. That gives the Athletics a meaningful advantage in this specific environment. I make the Athletics closer to a -130 favorite in this matchup, which makes the current -113 price worth backing.

Junior Caminero is in a strong spot to go deep tonight against Dodgers left hander Eric Lauer. Lauer enters with one of the weakest pitcher profiles on the slate, grading poorly in strikeout rate, ground ball rate, and overall matchup ISO. He has also struggled to contain right handed hitters at home, allowing a 71% elevation rate, along with a .504 expected slugging, .349 expected wOBA, and a 12% barrel rate in that split. Caminero matches up well into Lauer’s arsenal, covering 72.5% of his pitch mix. He has also been in strong recent form against southpaws, posting a .304 average, .902 OPS, nearly 60% hard hit rate, and consistent barrel production over his last 30 plate appearances.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.