MLB Picks

Coby Mayo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Over the past 7 days, Coby Mayo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.. In the past 14 days, Coby Mayo's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.9%.. Coby Mayo has put up a .208 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Coby Mayo has shown weak plate discipline this year, ranking in the 10th percentile with a 4.31 K/BB rate.

Alejandro Osuna has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. In the past two weeks, Alejandro Osuna's 59.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.6%.. Using Statcast metrics, Alejandro Osuna grades out in the 79th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .332.

Andres Chaparro's BABIP ability is projected in the 16th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. This year, Andres Chaparro has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 68% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.. Fenway Park has the 2nd-tallest fences in Major League Baseball.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.

Melton has a 3.36 expected ERA, .223 expected BA, 6.4% barrel rate, and 33.0% hard-hit rate. That hard-hit rate in particular stands out. It's in the top 15th percentile of the sport, and a New York Yankees lineup that has been reliant on the longball has only become more reliant on it lately.

Will Warren is not a bad starter, but his reputation supersedes his reality. His 4.11 xERA and .398 xSLG allowed more room for Detroit to create offense. Play to +100.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 92°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for hitters.

Though the price is shorter than ideal, Kazuma Okamoto is Toronto’s best bet for a quiet offense, as his late-game power, Canada Day setting, and strong track record against Freddy Peralta’s fastball make him well positioned for a big night.

Skenes has allowed at least one earned run in eight straight starts, and multiple runs six times. That includes a May 17 outing against the Phillies in which he coughed up five earned in five frames, highlighted by a Bryce Harper solo shot. The Phils lead the majors in dingers over the last two weeks (24) while ranking fifth in wRC. Skenes has failed to pitch past six innings in each of his last eight starts. Expect plenty of exposure for a Pirates bullpen ranked 20th in WAR (-0.1) over the last month.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #10 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The #5 stadium in the league for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to more offense.. This matchup is forecasted to have the 12th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme groundball batters like Michael Massey tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane McClanahan.

Josh Bell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for home runs.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Josh Bell will get to bat from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Tatsuya Imai) in today's game.. Posting a .349 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Josh Bell grades out in the 83rd percentile for hitting ability.. Josh Bell has paced 28.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Shane Drohan has quietly pitched well, limiting hard contact while allowing just 0.96 home runs per nine innings over his last two starts. Andrew Abbott's recent struggles and Milwaukee's 140 wRC+ over the last six games create a favorable matchup for the Brewers to continue their offensive surge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Heriberto Hernandez will have an edge in today's matchup.

The #2 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Shohei Ohtani throws from, Jeff McNeil will have an edge in today's game.

Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Pavin Smith will have the handedness advantage over Trevor McDonald today... and moreover, McDonald has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Pavin Smith will hold that advantage today.. As it relates to his home runs, Pavin Smith has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 15.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.8.. Pavin Smith has put up a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.