Let's end the weekend with some NUKES!
Here are my favorite MLB home run props and predictions for today's schedule, featuring Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, and Munetaka Murakami.
I'll explain why Ohtani is an appealing pick against the Brewers in Los Angeles with my MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 16.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Kyle Schwarber |
+307 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
+388 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+262 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +3279 |
Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+307)
Just an outstanding price for one of baseball's most feared hitters.
Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber finds himself in a great spot against Minnesota Twins starter Dean Kremer, who has been struggling against left-handed hitters as of late. The last 60 lefties he has faced own a .335 xBA, .595 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA, all while generating a 65.9% elevation rate.
Schwarber has been turning it on over his last 10 games, owning a .658 SLG and .369 ISO while producing a 54.2% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.
The Phillies' big fella owns the second-highest matchup rating on the day over at Batters-Box's current-season dataset, where he also covers more than 80% of Kremer's pitch mix.
If you can get this price above +300, back Schwarber to go deep.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, NBCSP
Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+388)
The South Side slugger finds himself in a spot that is too hard to pass up, as he draws Detroit Tigers right-hander Drew Anderson.
Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami enters Sunday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he covers nearly 100% of Anderson's pitch mix. On top of that, through 50 elite ratings this season, the big fella leaves the yard 32% of the time.
Anderson has struggled against left-handed hitters in his most recent outings, allowing the last 30 he has faced to generate a 13.6% barrel rate and 18.2% elevation rate. During that stretch, those lefties own a .376 xBA, .548 xSLG, and .438 xwOBA.
Murakami, over his last 10 games, sports a .343 ISO, along with a 25% HR/FB, 57.1% hard-hit, and 19.1% barrel rate.
At +388, we are getting a ton of value backing the White Sox All-Star. Take this down to +350.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, DSN
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+262)
The second-highest rated hitter on Batters-Box’s default ratings today happens to be Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, who records a home run nearly 30% of the time he is rated elite. That is a sample of nearly 340 games dating back over the last three seasons.
Ohtani has posted a .575 SLG, .325 ISO, 62.9% elevation rate, and 14.8% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He draws Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Logan Henderson, who has been struggling against left-handed hitters in his recent outings.
Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, they own a .308 xBA, .670 xSLG, and .439 xwOBA. Henderson is also allowing a 48.6% hard-hit rate, 11.4% barrel rate, and just a 31.4% ground-ball rate to lefties during that stretch.
With Ohtani covering 100% of Henderson’s pitch mix and generating this much hard contact, a long ball is on the horizon. Take this down to +250.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, BREW
- HR picks: 101-354, +11.4u
Today’s HR combo
| Kyle Schwarber |
Trade Now +3279 |
| Munetaka Murakami |
|
| Shohei Ohtani |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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