MLB Picks

Eury Perez throws the ball fairly hard, which results in a lot of hard contact against him. Jesus Sanchez has been swinging the bat really well lately, with a .306 batting average against the four-seamer with a 43% hard-hit rate, resulting in four XBH in his last five games. That includes his first career grand slam last night.

Curtis Mead's batting average ability is projected to be in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #4 park in the majors for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Curtis Mead has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The Milwaukee Brewers have completely controlled this series, outscoring the St. Louis Cardinals 11-1 through two games. Dustin May owns a 5.23 road ERA and now faces one of baseball’s hottest offenses. Even with a bullpen game likely ahead, Milwaukee’s relief staff has been excellent all season.

Let's roll with the best +EV home run prop, per the projections at Covers, in the best HR environment on the slate, according to Ballpark Pal. This is once again a great spot for dingers, with both starters ranking in the bottom 35 among starting pitchers in HR/FB rate. Logan Gilbert has been giving up plenty of fly balls lately, carrying just a 39% groundball rate over his last five starts. His 21% HR/FB rate also ranks in the bottom 15 among starters. Shea Langeliers has already gone yard in this series and brings a strong fly-ball profile of his own, posting a 51% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days along with the team’s best Ideal Attack Angle, per FanGraphs bat-tracking metrics. His arrow has been pointing up all season, and now he gets a great pitching matchup, an elite hitting environment, and a home run price sitting roughly 50 points above the fair number.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage today.

The Phillies are rolling on the road and hand the ball to Cristopher Sanchez, who owns a stellar 1.62 ERA and hasn’t allowed a run in four straight starts. San Diego’s offense has struggled all series, while Walker Buehler still carries a 5.05 ERA despite recent improvement at Petco Park.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #10 field in the game for overall lefty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. This contest is forecasted to have the 12th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Vaughn Grissom's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vaughn Grissom is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's game.. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Cracking 3 HRs in the past 14 days, Brandon Lowe has been on fire lately.

Chris Sale may get most of the attention atop Atlanta’s rotation, but Bryce Elder has been every bit as dominant in his own right, leaning on a deep five-pitch mix to post a 1.97 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile in Barrel% at Baseball Savant. Elder is set to take on a Boston Red Sox offense that has been virtually non-existent in 2026, sitting 29th in runs per game (3.7) and sporting a .696 OPS on the year. On the other hand, Atlanta’s lineup has swung back to form this season, ranking third in wOBA (.334), wRC+ (112), and trailing only the New York Yankees in team home runs. Take the Braves to make it consecutive wins in Beantown, and I’d play this up to -125.

The projections love the Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat I want from this visiting lineup. He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen. Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he leads the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage. He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.

Kansas City does not strikeout much against righties, but Cole’s current profile is less about pure strikeouts and more about limiting damage. That directly attacks Kansas City’s issue: the Royals have a team barrel rate of just 8%. This is an angle we've hit on throughout the series. The Royals' path to scoring is stringing together multiple hits, and the quality of pitchers that New York has thrown out haven't allowed that to happen. This isn’t a huge edge, though, and I’d play to -130.

In addition to the White Sox ranking fifth in wOBA against left-handed starters this season and second in overall xwOBA while averaging 4.9 runs per game in May, the Twins have also won seven of their past nine games with a solid .325 wOBA and an average of 4.4 runs per game. So, with both teams also trending to the Over, I’m anticipating both clubs chipping in more than enough to send this total Over the number.

The Texas Rangers are in a strong spot with Jacob deGrom taking the mound at Globe Life Field, where he owns a dominant 1.16 ERA this season. Meanwhile, Astros starter Mike Burrows has struggled badly lately, allowing 11 earned runs across his last two outings. Texas’ offense should capitalize again tonight.

With only one side likely to contribute to the total, it's hard to count on too many runs being scored. Ohtani (21.6% K-BB%) should dominate a soft-hitting Rockies lineup (67 wRC+ in the last 20 days), and it's unlikely he's in the lineup himself after getting plunked in the hand on Tuesday.

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.