MLB Picks

Cold weather and two ground-ball pitchers plus Cleveland’s top 10 bullpen scream low-scoring.

The Under has hit in four of the last five meetings, and we’ll follow this trend tonight. 

 

Cleveland is scoring just three runs per game over its last five, and Wacha has handled this group well historically, holding them to a .652 OPS across 91 at-bats.

Bibee served up three bombs in his last start and now faces an offense averaging nearly six runs per game over its last five, with a .694 OPS and four home runs in 91 at-bats against him.

I’ll back the hotter bats tonight. 

 

I’m willing to dip below +400 to fade Germán Márquez, who projects as the weakest starter on the slate and is expected to allow the most runs by a wide margin. He lasted just nine outs in his last start, giving up eight hits and two homers, and continues to profile as an extreme fly-ball pitcher with poor Pull Air% metrics over the past couple of seasons. While conditions are cold in most parks, PNC Park at least has 14 mph winds blowing out to center, boosting the power environment. Oneil Cruz should see plenty of opportunities hitting leadoff, with a strong chance at five plate appearances. He went deep for his fourth homer yesterday and has handled lefties well in a small sample this year, posting a 2.091 OPS. Cruz also ranks among the league leaders in barrels per plate appearance and average exit velocity, giving him legitimate top-10 home run upside if this form continues.

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts German Marquez in the 4th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects German Marquez to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.. The #7 ballpark in the game for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. German Marquez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 15° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Eugenio Suarez has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (31.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Janson Junk doesn't generate many whiffs (9th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.. In the last week's worth of games, Eugenio Suarez has displayed impressive power, recording a a 30% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power).

Jakob Marsee is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 15° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Jakob Marsee hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Jakob Marsee will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jakob Marsee ranks in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Brandon Woodruff is projected to throw 83 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least on the slate today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in the league for strikeouts.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.9-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Brandon Woodruff will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brandon Woodruff has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 62.5% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

As it relates to his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.9-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Brayan Bello throws from, Jake Bauers will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Luis Garcia Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Luis Garcia Jr. will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Luis Garcia Jr. will hold that advantage today.

Alec Burleson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals.

Rogers Centre is one of the better power environments on today’s slate, ranking among the top HR parks by THE BAT. With the Los Angeles Dodgers in town — a lineup leading MLB in home runs per game (1.78) — this is a strong spot to target the HR market. Max Scherzer is still generating plenty of fly balls, and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen has been heavily taxed, ranking near the top of the league in innings pitched. The Dodgers also bring familiarity against both Scherzer and this bullpen. Andy Pages stands out as a value option, likely hitting seventh and entered Sunday on a five-game multi-hit streak. He’s slugging .794 and just went 7-for-13 with 14 total bases and two home runs in a series in Washington. While bigger names will draw attention, the price is the difference. Rather than laying a short number on Shohei Ohtani, Pages at +450 or better is the preferred play in this matchup.

When assessing his home run ability, Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Rogers Centre has the 3rd-shallowest in Major League Baseball.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 16° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #5 stadium in the majors for boosting offensive stats to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #5 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.

Byron Buxton projects as the 10th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Target Field ranks as the #5 field in the game for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Byron Buxton will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Byron Buxton has been lifting the ball well recently, notching a 29.8° launch angle in the last two weeks.

When estimating his home run skill, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kerry Carpenter is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Target Field ranks as the #5 field in the game for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kerry Carpenter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ryan in today's matchup... and moreover, Ryan has a large platoon split.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 7th-weakest out of every team today.

Before the Mariners' offense kind of woke up on Sunday, they scored three total runs between Friday and Saturday against the Angels, none coming before extra innings. It's hard to believe Seattle will do its part to clear this number against Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom. Add in Logan Gilbert toeing the rubber for the visitors, and this could easily end 3-2 or 4-3.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Jake Burger is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.

When estimating his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mickey Moniak is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 stadium in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Mickey Moniak will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cody Bolton in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Beck in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 stadium in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jordan Beck will hold that advantage in today's game.

Chris Sale and Jose Soriano have combined to allow one total run over 24 innings to start this season. The peripherals for both starters look solid, and the Angels have simply not fielded a consistently productive offense (84 wRC+). 

As it relates to his home run skill, Jorge Soler ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Angel Stadium profiles as the #7 field in the game for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions on the slate today.

Andrew Painter looked sharp in his MLB debut and now draws the second-worst offense in baseball to start the season. The Giants boast a putrid 66 wRC+ and .564 OPS (entering Sunday), and unless that production turns around quickly, San Francisco is in trouble. I like Philly's chances at running up the score, too, against a pitch-to-contact hurler like Adrian Houser.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Painter to throw 82 pitches in this matchup (6th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies's expected catcher today, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Oracle Park grades out as the #24 ballpark in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.. Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Andrew Painter today.