MLB Picks

New York is on a bullpen day, so the focus is Ryan Yarbrough, whether he opens or works bulk. He has not pitched since July 4 and can cover length, but his 18% strikeout rate meets a Rays lineup with an 86% zone-contact rate. That has been the series problem. Drew Rasmussen adds the cleaner edge with a 4.5% walk rate against a Yankees lineup needing free traffic.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 86th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.

Brooks Lee's BABIP talent is projected in the 10th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 10th-deepest CF fences in the majors are found in Target Field.. The Cleveland Guardians outfield defense grades out as the 4th-best out of all the teams in action today.. Brooks Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 87.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Brooks Lee's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 16.6% to 12.9%.

The #7 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the least fair ground in MLB — generally good for homers.. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Anthony Kay throws from, Connor Wong will have an advantage in today's game.. Connor Wong has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last season's 87-mph figure.

Greene is swinging one of the fastest bats in baseball, matching Yordan Alvarez's swing speed over the last two weeks, which ranks 17th in the league and tops on the Tigers. He's also in the middle of a power surge, piling up 24 total bases (six extra-base hits) over his last 27 at-bats, including a team-leading four home runs. Jack Perkins is one of the best home run targets on the board. The Athletics' starter owns the worst HR/9 among today's starters over the last 30 days, and his 28.4% groundball rate means there should be plenty of balls in the air. 

After the Reds put up nearly two touchdowns last night, I expect the Phillies to come out with a chip on their shoulder and bounce back in a big way. Brady Singer draws a fully elite rated Phillies lineup featuring three elite rated hitters and two strong rated bats. Even better, those three elite bats all own at least 57.6% arsenal coverage against Singer’s pitch mix. Philadelphia has also been swinging a hot bat, posting a 111 wRC+, .332 wOBA, and .167 ISO over their last 12 games. I’m looking to fade Singer and back this Phillies offense tonight.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, JJ Wetherholt will have an advantage today.

Nathan Eovaldi finds himself in a strong spot to attack an Angels lineup that continues to rack up strikeouts. After MacKenzie Gore's missed ladder last night, I’m looking right back to another high upside strikeout arm. Over their last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six Angels hitters have strikeout rates above 23.3%, with four sitting above 33.3%. Eovaldi has been dominant recently, posting a 29.51% strikeout rate over his last five starts, while generating a 33.1% called strikes plus whiffs rate and 17.2% swinging strike rate over his last 90 batters faced.

Merrill Kelly enters today with one of the worst pitcher ratings on Batters-Box, including the lowest matchup strikeout rate in the current season dataset. His recent strikeout trends in poor spots are concerning, staying under 4 strikeouts in 47% of poorly rated games and 66.67% of games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate this season. Kelly’s strikeout rate has also stayed below 13% over his last 5 starts and sits at just 10.34% on the road this season. Despite the Padres’ recent strikeout issues, their offense has been seeing the ball well, making this a strong spot for Kelly to fall short.

When it comes to his home run talent, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.5-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters.. Casey Schmitt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Casey Schmitt has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 25.5° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.