The Tampa Bay Rays are firm -155 moneyline favorites against the New York Yankees today, and my Yankees vs. Rays predictions are backing them in the series finale.
Drew Rasmussen gives Tampa Bay the clear starting-pitching edge, while New York’s bullpen-game setup asks too much from a staff patching innings together.
My MLB picks for July 9 are also taking the Under behind two run-prevention profiles that limit loud contact.
Who will win Yankees vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (-155)
I’m fading the New York Yankees again, and would play the Tampa Bay Rays moneyline to -165, with a smaller -1.5 play to +122 (bigger edge on the moneyline).
New York is on a bullpen day. The focus is Ryan Yarbrough, and whether he opens or works bulk, the former Ray should play a part.
He has not pitched since July 4 and can cover length, but his 18% strikeout rate meets a Rays lineup with an 86% zone-contact rate. That has been a series-long problem.
Drew Rasmussen adds the cleaner edge with just a 4.5% walk rate against a Yankees lineup needing free traffic.
COVERS INTEL: Rasmussen has allowed only a 6.9% barrel rate, a key matchup point against a Yankees offense leaning on its 10.0% team barrel rate.
Yankees vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-103)
I’m taking the Under and would play it to -115.
Rasmussen fits this matchup because of his reliability and contact control. He ranks in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate and 75th percentile in ground-ball rate, the right mix against a Yankees offense still trying to score through lift and isolated power.
New York’s bullpen day is also set up better than it looks. Several rested arms induce soft contact, which should play against a Tampa Bay lineup with the third-highest ground-ball mark in baseball.
- ML/RL bets: 37-32, +7.77 units
- Over/Under bets: 42-29, +17.09 units
Yankees vs Rays weather
Dome.
Yankees vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +140 | Rays -155
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Rays -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Rays trend
The Rays have hit the moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games at home (+15.65 Units / 24% ROI).
How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Thursday, July 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Rays.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Yarbrough (bulk) (0-0, 4.29 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (7-4, 2.78 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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