The All-Star break is coming, but not before a loaded full-day Thursday slate that is ripe for MLB player props and dingers.
I'm a sucker for a matinee game, and Drake Baldwin is back in form and wants to prove why he is an All-Star starter. Riley Greene is also on a heater and gets the best HR/9 pitcher on the slate today.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, July 9.
Best MLB home run props today
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Drake Baldwin
Riley Greene
Home run pick: Drake Baldwin (+442)
Let's get on the dinger train early with a great matchup in the 12:35 matinee.
Drake Baldwin is heading to the All-Star Game in just his second season, and projects as a +EV home run play today. He owns the fourth-highest probability to go deep on the slate and gets a matchup with Mitch Keller, who served up three home runs in his last outing.
The hotter months have not been kind to the Pittsburgh starter. Keller has allowed eight home runs in 32 innings across his last six starts, his H/9 has climbed above one per inning, and he has gone Over his strikeout prop just once during that stretch.
Baldwin snapped a brief cold spell with a homer over the weekend, but his BlastContact% and swing speed have both ticked up over the last week. I make the fair price closer to +380, and we've seen his home run prop as short as +350 over his last 10 games.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, BravesVision
Home run pick: Riley Greene (+364)
More All-Stars are making the home run card today with Riley Greene at +364.
He is swinging one of the fastest bats in baseball, matching Yordan Alvarez's swing speed over the last two weeks, which ranks 17th in the league and tops on the Tigers. He's also in the middle of a power surge, piling up 24 total bases (six extra-base hits) over his last 27 at-bats, including a team-leading four home runs.
Jack Perkins is one of the best home run targets on the board. The Athletics' starter owns the worst HR/9 among today's starters over the last 30 days, and his 28.4% groundball rate means there should be plenty of balls in the air.
The lefty Greene also loves right-handed pitching, with 11 of his 13 home runs this season coming against righties. The Athletics may only have Hogan Harris available out of the bullpen as a lefty, and left-handed hitters have actually had more success against him than righties.
This home run prop has been as short as +310 over the last 10 games.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, NBCSCA
- HR picks: 21-129, -19.63 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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