MLB Picks

Sonny Gray is due for negative regression. His 4.39 expected ERA is nearly a full run and a half higher than his actual ERA. Pulling these metrics down the most is a barrel rate that sits in the bottom 33% of the sport. Judge's absence is felt, but the Yankees still rank first in baseball in both barrel and hard-hit rate, built to expose Gray's contact profile.

Alec Burleson is one of my favorite props on the board tonight against Brady Singer. The Reds right-hander has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact, barrels, and elevated batted balls. Those issues have only worsened recently, with lefties posting massive expected numbers against him. Burleson grades out as the lone elite rated hitter in this matchup on Batters-Box, carrying outstanding arsenal coverage against Singer's pitch mix. He has also been swinging a hot bat against right-handed pitching, producing consistent hard contact and extra-base power. I'm backing Burleson tonight and will also sprinkle some exposure on his home run market.

 With Rangers righty Kumar Rocker pitching a scoreless first in three of his past four starts and holding hitters to an overall .159 batting average, I’m anticipating him taking care of a Cleveland lineup ranked 26th in wOBA against righties in the opening frame. The Guardians have only scored in the first in 27% of their games, too. It’s a similar matchup in the bottom half, too. Cleveland southpaw Parker Messick hasn’t allowed a first-inning run all season while holding opposing hitters to a miniscule .371 OPS. The Rangers rank 28th in wOBA against lefties, too.

For the first time ever, I'm backing Jac Caglianone, and the rookie finds himself in an excellent spot to break out against Zebby Matthews. The Twins right-hander carries some of the weakest pitcher ratings in Batters Box and has struggled to limit hard contact and elevated batted balls, especially against left-handed hitters. Those issues line up perfectly for Caglianone, who has been crushing right-handed pitching with elite hard-hit and barrel rates over his recent sample. His arsenal coverage grades out well against Matthews' pitch mix, and the underlying metrics suggest bigger results are on the horizon. If the hits, runs, and RBI prop isn't available at plus money, I would pivot to over 1.5 total bases and sprinkle the home run as well.

Brandon Sproat's ERA is above 6.00 in no small part because he's walking half the ballpark whenever he pitches (15th percentile in BB%). His 32nd-percentile hard-hit rate will get him into all kinds of trouble in Coors Field, and his bullpen (22nd in xFIP across the past two weeks) will just add gasoline to the fire. 

Scott owns a 2.63 ERA over the past 30 days despite a 3.75 SIERA and 3.88 xFIP. He is not pitching as well as the results suggest, and a correction is coming.

Meanwhile, King has benefited from some batted ball luck. Opponents have hit .247 on balls put in play the last month, noticeably below his career average of .285.

Playable to -105.

James Wood finds himself back on the card tonight in a favorable matchup against Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks right-hander has struggled to keep left-handed hitters on the ground at home, allowing plenty of elevated contact and loud exit velocities. That sets up well for Wood, who has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching. Over his recent sample, the Nationals star has produced elite power metrics, including a massive hard-hit rate and barrel percentage. Wood also grades out as one of the top arsenal matches on the slate, making this a prime spot to target his stolen base prop at anything up to -115.