Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on July 22.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Ty France |
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | -120 |
 Wyatt Langford |
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | -136 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | -111 |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120)
We are backing the lone elite rated hitter in this matchup, and he comes from the current season dataset on Batters-Box. Ty France not only enters with a red hot bat, but also draws a red hot matchup against Atlanta Braves southpaw Martin Perez.
Through 14 elite ratings this season, France has surpassed this prop 57% of the time, while leaving the yard in nearly 30% of those games. He also covers over 63% of Perez’s pitch mix, and the expected data suggests that number should be even higher.
Across France’s last 60 plate appearances against left handed pitching, he owns a .365 BA, .433 OBP, .635 SLG, and 1.068 OPS, while posting a 56% hard hit rate and 7.7% barrel rate.
Perez, on the other hand, has struggled over his last three starts, posting a 7.43 ERA, 7.19 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP. While he has done a decent job limiting hard contact, he is still allowing an 8.33% barrel rate during that stretch.
For the price, and with the San Diego Padres lineup around him starting to heat up, I think France is in a great spot to clear his HRR prop. If you are not in the juice paying business, his bases are plus money.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SDPA, BravesVsn
Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-136)
Texas Rangers young slugger Wyatt Langford finds himself in yet another boom spot as he draws Chicago White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay this evening.
Langford enters tonight with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he surpasses this prop 60% of the time when he is elite, across a 25 game elite rating sample size. On top of that, he covers 86.4% of Kay’s pitch mix.
Kay has allowed right handed hitters to elevate the ball a ton this season, and despite his recent success, he is still allowing plenty of hard contact. Over his last 60 right handed hitters faced, the White Sox lefty is allowing a 47% hard hit rate and 14% barrel rate. On top of that, those hitters own a .403 xSLG and .358 xwOBA during that stretch.
Over his last 30 right handed hitters faced, those numbers climb even higher, with a 50% hard hit rate and 22% barrel rate. I think Kay is due for an off night.
I would not pay much more juice on this prop. If you cannot find Langford’s HRR around this price, I would pivot to his bases prop at plus money.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, RSN
Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-111)
It is a beautiful day to fade Rangers right hander Cal Quantrill, and yes, there is an opener. Do not worry, Quantrill will be on the bump this evening.
I do not think there is another guy in baseball more due for a long ball than Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami. Over his last 30 at bats versus right handed pitchers, he owns a .304 BA, .609 SLG, 1.076 OPS, .305 ISO, while posting a 58% hard hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
The young slugger enters Wednesday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while also showing great arsenal coverage against Quantrill’s pitch mix.
Against left handed hitters at home this season, Quantrill is allowing a 73.8% elevation rate and over 32% hard hit rate. Those left handed hitters own a .280 BA, .460 SLG, and .352 wOBA.
I think this is a fantastic spot to back Murakami’s HRR prop. If you can find his hit price below -170, I would also be interested. Across 36 elite rated games, he records a hit 70% of the time.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, RSN
- Prop picks: 328-607, +1.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
