The Atlanta Braves head into tonight's matchup with the San Diego Padres as a -108 moneyline favorite after losing Game 2 of the series on Tuesday.
However, my Padres vs. Braves predictions are targeting San Diego to snatch another victory with the struggling Martin Perez on the mound.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, July 22.
Who will win Padres vs Braves today: Padres moneyline (+101)
The Atlanta Braves hand Martin Perez the ball tonight, and he's in a rough stretch right now. The left-hander sports an 8.13 FIP across his last three outings. Perez is also hurting himself with free passes, giving up 6.08 BB/9 during that span.
As for San Diego Padres righty Michael King, he's started to find his best. King has a 3.31 FIP in his last five appearances while holding opponents to a 28.7% hard-hit rate.
The Padres aren't exactly raking against lefties, but Perez is consistently making mistakes, and San Diego has a 136 wRC+ over its last 10 games.
I'll play this pick up to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Perez is allowing 2.70 HR/9 in the last month, and the Padres have a .291 ISO in their previous five contests. 
Padres vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-112)
This total is tricky because San Diego’s bullpen has been solid lately, posting a 3.10 FIP over the last week. However, the Over still has a clear path with both offenses swinging it well.
Atlanta has been one of the hottest lineups in baseball, carrying a 150 wRC+ and .262 ISO across their last five games. San Diego is also in strong form, and Perez’s recent walk and home-run issues create an early scoring opportunity.
The Braves bullpen is another concern, collecting a 5.00 FIP over the last week. Even if King pitches well, both lineups have enough form to push this Over.
I’ll play this pick up to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 35-40, -9.20 units
- Over/Under bets: 42-31, +5.15 units
Padres vs Braves weather
Conditions look warm and humid in Atlanta tonight, with temperatures in the mid-80s around first pitch before falling near 80 later. Winds should stay light-to-moderate around 6 to 8 mph, while rain chances sit in the 35%–40% range. A brief shower or storm is possible early, but weather shouldn’t be a major factor if the game avoids a delay.
Padres vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +104 | Atlanta -108
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+170) | Atlanta +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)
Padres vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves.
How to watch Padres vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Wednesday, July 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, BravesVision |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (6-7, 3.34 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Martin Perez (6-6, 3.54 ERA) |
Padres vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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