MLB Picks

I'd play the Under to 7. 

Both starters can control the shape of this game. Sale gives Atlanta strikeout upside against a Yankees lineup that has been flat-out bad, while Cole is still more than capable of limiting traffic even if his barrel profile creates some concern.

If Sale handles the Yankees’ cold stretches and Cole avoids the multi-run homer, this profiles more like a lower-scoring road favorite script than a full offensive eruption. In fact, it could look a lot like last night.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. Over the last week, Mike Trout's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.9%.. Mike Trout has posted a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The Under 9.5 works because Oakland is doing little offensively and Boston’s bullpen has been dominant. The Red Sox relief corps owns a 1.93 xERA over its last 26.1 innings with minimal homer damage. If Oakland’s bullpen limits Boston after Jump exits, this stays under ten runs at Fenway today overall.

Alejandro Kirk has 12 hits in his last 10 games and draws an excellent matchup against Aaron Nola's vulnerable four-seam fastball, making over 1.5 total bases an appealing play.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Francisco Alvarez has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 16.9% seasonal rate to 26.7% over the last two weeks.. Francisco Alvarez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.2-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.2-mph average.. Francisco Alvarez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 16.3% on the season to 60% in the last week's worth of games.. Checking in at the 75th percentile for power, Francisco Alvarez has averaged 25.1 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest in MLB.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Luke Keaschall's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. American Family Field ranks as the #7 venue in MLB for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. American Family Field has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Newly acquired right hander Clay Holmes is likely to make his Cubs debut tonight, and I think he is in a strong spot to help keep the Royals’ struggling offense quiet. Kansas City’s bats have been ice cold, and while Seth Lugo has struggled this season, I am not expecting the Cubs to completely explode offensively. Chicago is certainly capable of putting up eight or more runs on any given night, but I expect a more controlled offensive performance here. After last night’s higher scoring affair, I’m looking for both sides to settle in and produce a lower scoring game.

Gavin Williams faces Anthony Kay in an evenly priced pick 'em spot. In their past 14 days, Cleveland holds a decisive edge in overall run prevention, boasting a 3.78 bullpen SIERA and a 25.8% strikeout rate compared to Chicago's 4.33 SIERA. With identical moneyline odds, trust the stronger pitching staff to pull it out.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Ty France is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ty France will hold that advantage today.. Ty France has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last year's 89.6-mph mark.

I am backing the San Francisco Giants as a slight home underdog against the Detroit Tigers. Detroit sends right hander Jackson Jobe to the mound for his season debut after he posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 10 starts in 2025. Jobe also carries a poor matchup rating on Batters-Box, along with poor matchup marks in ISO and strikeout rate. On the other side, Landen Roupp has been significantly better at home, posting a 2.97 xERA and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just 22% hard contact and a 3% barrel rate. Despite their sub-100 wRC+, San Francisco's bats have been heating up against right handed pitching.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-lowest fences among all major league stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 89°.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Ezequiel Tovar will have the upper hand today.. Ezequiel Tovar has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 91.2-mph.. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.8°, Ezequiel Tovar has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 30.5° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Jacob deGrom is not in great form but he has been very good on the year, pitching to a 3.26 xFIP.

He is in a nice spot to rebound against a Baltimore Orioles team that pulled the plug at the trade deadline, selling multiple everyday bats for futures.

He won't need much run support to position the Texas Rangers to win.

Bet to -160.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed a modest 1.01 homers per nine innings and ranks in the 90th percentile with a 5.7% walk rate.

His ability to keep the ball in the park, and limit free baserunners, makes it very difficult on opponents to put together big innings.

Brandon Pfaadt has been even better at limiting the longball (0.92 HR/9), and has conceded just one bomb over his last 40.1 innings of work.

Bet to -120.

Seattle is 8-12, .400, since the All-Star Break, and this is just their fifth game since then against a winning team—they've won once.

So why are the M's favored? Not because of the pitching matchup. Tampa's Griffin Jax has a slightly better ERA (3.63) and WHIP (1.21) than Seattle's George Kirby and better metrics (strikeout rate, chase rate, whiff rate, and run value).

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.