MLB Picks

Riley Greene draws one of the more appealing matchups on Thursday's slate against Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai. Greene enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and nearly 90% arsenal coverage against Imai's pitch mix. The Tigers slugger has consistently produced in elite-rated home matchups, recording a hit nearly 69% of the time and clearing this prop close to 60% of the time. Imai has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing significant hard contact, elevation, and quality of contact metrics throughout the season. With Greene's recent form and Imai's splits against lefties, this price is difficult to pass up.

Cristopher Sánchez finds himself in a prime spot to rack up strikeouts against a Nationals lineup that has struggled against left-handed pitching. Washington owns a 38.1% strikeout rate against southpaws at home this season and has still punched out at a 25% clip over its last 12 games against lefties. Sánchez enters in excellent form, carrying a 28.54% strikeout rate and 31.09% whiff rate on the year. The Nationals also feature five hitters striking out above the league average. Batters-Box rates Sánchez as elite in this matchup, and his historical trends suggest strong upside to clear this number.

Connelly Early's 14% barrel rate sits in the 7th percentile in 2026, and his 5.33 xERA against his 3.79 ERA tells you regression is overdue. That's always going to be an issue against the New York Yankees. He's been particularly hittable at home with a 6.75 ERA in three Fenway starts, and now he draws a Yankees lineup with Ben Rice, Ryan McMahon and Cody Bellinger all carrying double-digit barrel rates. On the other side, Cam Schlittler is Cam Schlitter and a swing-free team is a not a team I wish to fade him against. Play this to -105.

The Chicago Cubs have feasted on right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, ranking seventh in wOBA, eighth in OPS, and first in walk rate.

Matthew Boyd is unlikely to provide much length in his return but the Cubs should be able to patch things together against a New York Mets offense sitting 22nd in runs and 29th in OBP. 

Back Chicago to -120.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.