MLB Picks

I’m playing the Over because both starters have pitch-shape issues that can turn into home-run damage. Weathers’ fastball has been a big issue, and "he's facing the Dodgers" is simply enough analysis to tell you why that presents troubles here.

Sheehan also gives New York a path. His heater has also had some issues. It's allowed a .550 xSLG, and his 65.0% air-ball rate, which makes him vulnerable against teams that can get the ball elevated. The Yankees are inconsistent without their full lineup, but they still carry enough barrel power at Yankee Stadium to help clear nine.

Since July 1, both the Braves and Rangers rank Top Six in ISO, wRC+, and wOBA. They're also not striking out, while hitting fly balls at a 40% clip or better.

The weather in Atlanta is third-best for home runs on Sunday, and you have a Texas bullpen that's struggling and an Atlanta pen that's fatigued. Look for fireworks in this one.

Paul Skenes may be coming off a slight slump, but this matchup against the Guardians is a prime bounce back spot. Cleveland has been striking out at an alarming rate lately, posting a 26.5% strikeout rate over its last 21 games and an even higher 27.7% mark across its last six. Skenes owns an elite pitcher rating and an elite matchup strikeout rate on Batters-Box, while consistently piling up punchouts. He has recorded at least seven strikeouts in 10 straight games with an elite strikeout rate. The over 7.5 is worth a sprinkle at plus money, though the over 6.5 is the safer play.

Heriberto Hernandez is in an excellent position to do damage against Brewers left hander Robert Gasser on Sunday. Hernandez carries an elite Batters-Box rating with over 75% arsenal coverage and has been one of Miami's best hitters against southpaws, posting a .759 SLG, 1.126 OPS, and .444 ISO while consistently producing loud contact. Gasser has been vulnerable to right handed hitters at home, allowing plenty of elevated contact, and his underlying expected metrics over his last 60 batters faced continue to trend in the wrong direction. Hernandez has all the ingredients to deliver another extra base hit or home run.

Yordan Alvarez is my favorite home run play on the board today. He enters as the highest rated hitter on Batters-Box with 100% arsenal coverage against Brandon Young, a matchup that checks every box. When Alvarez has received an elite rating this season, he has homered 35% of the time over a 25 game sample. He's also been crushing right-handed pitching lately, posting elite power numbers and consistently barreling baseballs. On the other side, Young has struggled badly against left-handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and elevated balls. Everything lines up for Alvarez to take advantage in this matchup.

Germán Márquez finds himself in another difficult spot against a Royals lineup that owns the highest average hitter matchup rating on the slate. Kansas City features six elite rated hitters and three more with strong ratings, making this a dangerous matchup despite its inconsistent offensive production this season. The Royals have also swung the bat much better at home recently, posting a 113 wRC+, .332 wOBA, and .750 OPS over their last 12 games. Márquez has struggled badly in his last five starts, and with his declining strikeout rate and elevated hard contact allowed, Kansas City should have plenty of scoring opportunities this afternoon.

Zebby Matthews ranks in the fifth percentile in barrel rate, which has made it difficult to keep the ball in the park. He has allowed homers at the second highest clip (2.28 HR/9) among all of today’s starters over the past 30 days.

Shota Imanaga is not far behind, conceding 2.11 HR/9 the last month.

Bet to -125.

I like the Under. Schlittler’s 29.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate give New York a way to manage traffic, even against baseball’s most complete offense.

Yamamoto is the bigger reason I like the number. He has allowed a .280 xwOBA with a 6.5% barrel rate, and his pitch mix makes it tough for hitters to sit on one shape. The Yankees can hit mistakes, but sustained rallies are less likely if Yamamoto keeps them guessing.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.