The 2026 World Cup final is going to be a tremendous matchup, as it represents the first time that the reigning European and Copa America champions have met to decide the world’s biggest tournament.
Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal will forever be linked thanks to a photograph taken nearly 20 years ago, and my Argentina vs. Spain goal scorer picks and predictions link them once more as their World Cup odds to score present solid value ahead of Sunday’s match.
Here are my Argentina vs. Spain predictions and World Cup picks at Kalshi, one of our top prediction market apps, for Sunday, July 19.
Argentina vs Spain goal scorer picks
| Player |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Lionel Messi |
36% | +178 |
 Mikel Oyarzabal |
32% | +213 |
| Lamine Yamal |
27% | +270 |
| First goal scorer: Mikel Oyarzabal |
15% | +567 |
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market's estimated probability of an event occurring.
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My Argentina vs Spain goal scorer predictions
Lionel Messi
Given his importance to Argentina, any goal-scoring discussion must begin with Lionel Messi. He's become more of a creator than scorer in the past two matches, as he hasn't scored since the comeback against Egypt in the Round of 16, but he remains at the heart of their attack.
Messi leads all players at the tournament with 34 attempts, and only Kylian Mbappe has more accurate attempts. That said, this Spanish defense is difficult to break down, which is why he’s got the longest odds he’s had to score in any match at the tournament thus far.
That’s not to say he won’t get chances. Messi will be a difficult matchup for Pedro Porro, and his experience and technical ability will be difficult for Spain to defend against. He’s also the beneficiary of a side set up to do all the work while providing him service.
Argentina have a 66% implied probability to score in this match. That makes Messi’s price strong value given he’s bagged eight of their 15 goals scored in regulation.
I would play this down to +150.
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal may not be the biggest name, but he’s been unbelievably clutch for this Spanish team. Add in his penalty duties, and I love the odds he’s getting to score.
This Argentine defense has major weaknesses, and I’m expecting the Spanish midfield to dictate tempo and possession. That will force an aging and tiring defense to track runners for long periods, and Argentina’s struggled to do so.
Only Mbappe and Lamine Yamal have more penalty box touches than Oyarzabal’s 47 so far in this tournament, and he’s converted five of his 11 efforts on target into goals.
Oyarzabal has scored in Spain’s last two finals, including the 86th-minute winner in the Euro 2024 final against England. Play to +150.
Lamine Yamal
The biggest beneficiary of Messi not really putting in defensive effort will be Spanish young star Lamine Yamal.
Every nation Spain has faced since the group stage has run both a defender and a wide player at him. They know he wants to cut back on his stronger left foot, and he's continued to do so.
Yamal is averaging 4.18 shots per 90 minutes, and his 1.82 shots on target per 90 ranks in the 96th percentile of all attackers. He’s only managed to find the net once, but he’s come close numerous times and had six shots blocked.
He’s going to have a matchup with Argentine left back Nicolas Tagliafico, where he will have a pace and athleticism advantage.
With his high shot volume, combined with having the second-most penalty box touches of any player in the tournament, his price is one to look at.
This one is playable down to +225.
First goal scorer pick: Mikel Oyarzabal
Oyarzabal has been the first name on the scoresheet in three of Spain’s seven matches at the World Cup, and in five of his last 10 starts overall for the national team.
His clutch goal scoring makes him the best option to score first. Play to +500.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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