MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 23, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

SD @

ATL Thu, Jul 23 • 12:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total RBIs

Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)

Projection 0.66

Best Odds

o0.5 +221

Pick made: 11 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +221

o0.5 +200

o0.5 +175

o0.5 +181

o0.5 +200

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest weather on the schedule today at 85°.

+221 at DraftKings

Total Hits

Matt Olson u0.5 Total Hits (+197)

Projection 0.91

Best Odds

u0.5 +197

Pick made: 13 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +197

u0.5 +182

u0.5 +165

u0.5 +190

The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-best among every team today.. Matt Olson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 46.6% to 38.8%.

+197 at DraftKings

View 10 Picks

MIN @

CLE Thu, Jul 23 • 1:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Royce Lewis o1.5 Total Bases (+205)

Projection 1.37

Best Odds

o1.5 +205

Pick made: 3 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +192

o1.5 +205

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +180

o1.5 +200

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 87th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The #10 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts the 4th-most suitable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Royce Lewis pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

+205 at bet365

Total Bases

Travis Bazzana u1.5 Total Bases (-235)

Projection 0.77

Best Odds

u1.5 -235

Pick made: 3 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -235

Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest average fence height among all parks.. Travis Bazzana hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Travis Bazzana's true offensive skill to be a .311, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .018 gap between that figure and his actual .329 wOBA.

-235 at bet365

View 10 Picks

TB @

TOR Thu, Jul 23 • 3:07 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Projection 1.67

Best Odds

o1.5 +130

Pick made: 5 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +115

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +121

o1.5 +125

When assessing his home run talent, Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Rogers Centre has the 6th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.8-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.

+130 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Alejandro Kirk u1.5 Total Bases (-200)

Projection 0.88

Best Odds

u1.5 -190

Pick made: 15 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -201

u1.5 -200

u1.5 -209

u1.5 -190

The league's 8th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Rogers Centre.. Alejandro Kirk has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 10.3% rate last season has lowered to 2.5% this season.. Alejandro Kirk's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 13.6% on the season to 0% in the last week.

-190 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 10 Picks

AZ @

STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET

6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks

Game Prop

o2.5 Team Total (-115)

Best Odds

o2.5 +114

Pick made: 27 days ago

o2.5 +114

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed

Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)

Best Odds

o2.5 -137

Pick made: 27 days ago

o2.5 -137

o2.5 -150

o2.5 -141

o2.5 -155

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

Read Full Analysis

View 16 Picks

KC @

DET Thu, Jul 23 • 6:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+144)

Projection 1.69

Best Odds

o1.5 +145

Pick made: 3 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +144

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +115

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +122

o1.5 +145

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carter Jensen in the 79th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Carter Jensen is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the shortest fences among all parks.. This contest is projected to have the 15th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Hitting from the opposite that Troy Melton throws from, Carter Jensen will have an advantage in today's game.

+145 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Kerry Carpenter o1.5 Total Bases (+150)

Projection 1.6

Best Odds

o1.5 +150

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +140

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 94th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Comerica Park has the shortest fences among all parks.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the majors, which generally leads to more offense.. This contest is projected to have the 15th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Kerry Carpenter will hold the platoon advantage over Randy Dobnak today.

+150 at DraftKings

View 10 Picks

TOR @

CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET

4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks

Total Home Runs

Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)

Best Odds

o0.5 +425

Pick made: one month ago

o0.5 +370

o0.5 +425

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.

3 LEG PARLAY

Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits

Total Hits

Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Strikeouts Thrown

George Springer o1.5 Total Bases

Total Bases

Bet now

+280

Pick made: one month ago

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

View 14 Picks

ATL @

CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET

5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks

Total

o8.5 (-105)

Pick made: one month ago

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Read Full Analysis

Moneyline

ATL (-112)

Best Odds

-115

Pick made: one month ago

-120

-115

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Read Full Analysis

View 15 Picks

BOS @

NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET

2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks

Total

o8.5 (-110)

Best Odds

o8.0 -125

Pick made: one month ago

o8.5 -102

o8.0 -125

o8.5 -102

o8.5 +100

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Read Full Analysis

Moneyline

NYY (-135)

Best Odds

-110

Pick made: one month ago

-118

-110

-112

-110

-115

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

Read Full Analysis

View 12 Picks

SF @

ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET

2 Expert Picks

Total

o7.5 (-116)

Pick made: one month ago

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Read Full Analysis

Moneyline

SF (+124)

Best Odds

+110

Pick made: one month ago

+110

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

Read Full Analysis

View 2 Picks

Covers Betting Team

Meet our team of experts

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

Learn more

Visit all available MLB odds View now MLB odds
MLB Scores + Matchups View now MLB Scores + Matchups

Latest headlines Checkout latest headlinesRead more

MLB

07/22/2026 03:21 ET

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, July 22

Wednesday's MLB player props and best bets!Read more

MLB

07/22/2026 01:37 ET

MLB Expert Picks & Baseball Predictions July 22

Rays stir up more trouble for Blue Jays.Read more

MLB

07/22/2026 12:52 ET

Padres vs Braves Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game

Offense takes center stage in ATL.Read more

MLB

07/22/2026 12:25 ET

Tigers vs Cubs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game

Back the kitties!Read more

What are Covers’ MLB Free picks and predictions?

Covers’ has more than 25 years of experience making smart MLB picks from the season’s first pitch to the World Series.

We find the best MLB odds and share our picks and baseball best bets for all the significant games of the baseball season right here on this page.

Our picks are researched and analyzed by experienced sports bettors looking for an edge to get the best value from their MLB betting.

Free MLB Expert Picks

Making smart MLB picks means looking beyond the favorites. Our free expert baseball picks will include a wide variety of bet types and markets.

Every day our baseball analysts look for quality baseball picks to share. You can expect well-researched picks on the money, run line, totals, player props, and much more.

Free MLB Run Line Picks

Run lines are what other sports like football and basketball refer to as point spreads. Run lines even the odds between two teams, offering bettors as close to an even matchup as possible. Our analysts research vital stats, pitching matchups, injuries, and more to give you the best possible edge before making your MLB run line bets.

Free MLB Totals Picks

Covers’ analysts make MLB Over/Under picks throughout the baseball season. Betting on MLB Over/Unders means choosing whether you think the combined total runs scored in a game will be Over or Under a specific run total set by oddsmakers.

Free MLB Moneyline Picks

Betting on the MLB moneyline means picking which team will win a game outright. While less common than picking the run line or even a prop, our analysts will always look for high-value baseball moneyline picks if they feel it’s the best bet.

Free MLB Prop Picks

There’s always value in MLB props. Our team scours through game, team, and player props to try and find opportunity and value. From strikeouts to home runs, expect well-researched MLB prop picks from Covers.

MLB Consensus Picks

Covers’ consensus MLB picks show you the odds and predictions that our vibrant community of bettors and players are making. Try our picks on with our free MLB contests for a chance at prizes and more.

Best Baseball Betting Sites

If you’re ready to bet on MLB picks, you first need to find the right sportsbook. The best MLB betting sites offer secure banking, best odds, bonuses, and reliable customer service.

More Free Picks

Covers’ staff of sports betting fans also offers a wide array of free picks for the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA basketball, and NCAA football.

MLB Free Picks FAQs

When do we release our MLB picks?

Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.

What kinds of MLB picks do we make?

Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.