MLB Picks

The league's 8th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Rogers Centre.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. In the last week, Munetaka Murakami's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 20.2% down to 0%.

I’m playing the Over because both starters have pitch-shape issues that can turn into home-run damage. Weathers’ fastball has been a big issue, and "he's facing the Dodgers" is simply enough analysis to tell you why that presents troubles here.

Sheehan also gives New York a path. His heater has also had some issues. It's allowed a .550 xSLG, and his 65.0% air-ball rate, which makes him vulnerable against teams that can get the ball elevated. The Yankees are inconsistent without their full lineup, but they still carry enough barrel power at Yankee Stadium to help clear nine.

Since July 1, both the Braves and Rangers rank Top Six in ISO, wRC+, and wOBA. They're also not striking out, while hitting fly balls at a 40% clip or better.

The weather in Atlanta is third-best for home runs on Sunday, and you have a Texas bullpen that's struggling and an Atlanta pen that's fatigued. Look for fireworks in this one.

The #6 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. Jared Young will hold the platoon advantage against Alan Rangel in today's game.. Jared Young's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, increasing from 40.4% on the season to 57.1% over the past 14 days.. Jared Young has performed at a clip of 29.5 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 91st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 15th-best hitter in the majors.. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Junior Caminero has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.7% seasonal rate to 100% over the past week.

Paul Skenes may be coming off a slight slump, but this matchup against the Guardians is a prime bounce back spot. Cleveland has been striking out at an alarming rate lately, posting a 26.5% strikeout rate over its last 21 games and an even higher 27.7% mark across its last six. Skenes owns an elite pitcher rating and an elite matchup strikeout rate on Batters-Box, while consistently piling up punchouts. He has recorded at least seven strikeouts in 10 straight games with an elite strikeout rate. The over 7.5 is worth a sprinkle at plus money, though the over 6.5 is the safer play.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 19th-best batter in baseball.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.. In the past week's worth of games, Pete Alonso's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.7% up to 20%.. Pete Alonso has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 103.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 96.7-mph.

Germán Márquez finds himself in another difficult spot against a Royals lineup that owns the highest average hitter matchup rating on the slate. Kansas City features six elite rated hitters and three more with strong ratings, making this a dangerous matchup despite its inconsistent offensive production this season. The Royals have also swung the bat much better at home recently, posting a 113 wRC+, .332 wOBA, and .750 OPS over their last 12 games. Márquez has struggled badly in his last five starts, and with his declining strikeout rate and elevated hard contact allowed, Kansas City should have plenty of scoring opportunities this afternoon.

Zebby Matthews ranks in the fifth percentile in barrel rate, which has made it difficult to keep the ball in the park. He has allowed homers at the second highest clip (2.28 HR/9) among all of today’s starters over the past 30 days.

Shota Imanaga is not far behind, conceding 2.11 HR/9 the last month.

Bet to -125.

Noelvi Marte's batting average ability is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 95°.. Noelvi Marte's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to study power) has been 116.7 mph since the start of last season, ranking in the 96th percentile.

As it relates to his home run skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Rafael Devers has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Chase Field grades out as the #3 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Ivan Herrera will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez in today's game.

I like the Under. Schlittler’s 29.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate give New York a way to manage traffic, even against baseball’s most complete offense.

Yamamoto is the bigger reason I like the number. He has allowed a .280 xwOBA with a 6.5% barrel rate, and his pitch mix makes it tough for hitters to sit on one shape. The Yankees can hit mistakes, but sustained rallies are less likely if Yamamoto keeps them guessing.

 

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.