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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
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Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 30, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.90 |
-115 
|
o7.0 -107 
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
3.78 |
+102
|
u7.5 -134 
|
+1.5 -166
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Atlanta
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mahles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Ozzie Albies o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+128 
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.47 |
-144
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +157
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 7-0 in White Sox last 7 road games.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Burkes last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 9-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+212
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.93 |
+123
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.47 |
-130 
|
u7.0 -122
|
-1.5 +168
|
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Grays last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
+120
|
o7.0 -125
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
4.35 |
-134
|
u7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +165
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 Wild Card Round games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 during game 2 of a series.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in Pivettas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 Wild Card Round home games.
- Padres are 5-0 in Pivettas last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+271)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Atlanta
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.75 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 7-0 in White Sox last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Houston
- Under is 9-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 Wild Card Round games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.04 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts overall.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Coles last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cubs last 9 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 Wild Card Round games.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 Wild Card Round home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
PHI
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 30 • 2:00 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
If there's one hitter that'll get to Sanchez today, it'll likely be Ronald Acuna Jr., who owns a .388 xBA and .770 xSLG against the lefty. Yes, he's 0-for-12 in his last three games, including a hitless performance in Game 1, but Acuna has a knack for coming up big in clutch moments, and Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series fits the bill.
Outs Recorded
Cristopher Sanchez o17.5 Outs Recorded (-140)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Cristopher Sanchez has gone over this number in 10 of his last 11 starts, which is a big enough sample size for us to feel confident about this one. He's the ace, and after the Phillies' bullpen blew Game 1, expect Don Mattingly to lean heavily on the lefty this afternoon. Across 147 plate appearances against him, the Atlanta Braves own just a .241 xBA, own a lowly .296 xwOBA, and are getting struck out at a 25% clip - that's good enough for me to ride with him.
CHW
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 30 • 5:00 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total Home Runs (+529)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I have one goal in the postseason for dingers: fade higher-velocity pitching, and Hunter Brown has the highest average fastball velocity of all the starters today. The reasoning is that batters get amped up for the playoffs and hit higher velocity for more damage. It's why we usually see slower, craftier pitchers have success in the playoffs. Miguel Vargas has the second-best expected value at this price today, according to the projections, which have him at a fair price of 5.5x, or 18%. He hit 33 homers this year and has seen Brown eight times over his career, with three hits and a walk. The Astros had to use a bullpen day yesterday, and Brown will get a long leash, even if he is off. All seven of Houston's best bullpen arms threw yesterday, so even if Vargas has to see the high-leverage arms late in this game, that's in his favor.
Moneyline
HOU (-144)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Astros starter Hunter Brown has sizzled down the stretch with an elite 35.3% strikeout rate, 2.32 xERA and 2.20 xFIP across his past six starts, while White Sox righty Sean Burke has posted an unflattering 4.57 xERA and 5.41 xFIP through his final seven starts. Burke's statistical dip aligns with him cruising to a career-high 172 1/3 innings this year, and in particular, his fastball pitch value dropped from 10.1 through his first 20 starts to -1.0 over the past seven. So, with the Astros also finishing the regular season first in ISO and sixth in wRC+ against righties, I’m anticipating Burke having a difficult time navigating the Houston lineup in Game 2.
BOS
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ben Rice o0.5 Total Home Runs (+373)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Ben Rice launched two homers yesterday in a statement win over the Red Sox. Today, he faces Sonny Gray, who has given up two homers to Rice in seven career at-bats. The fair price on Rice has to be at least 4.3x, or 23%. The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium tonight, and as good as Gray has been this year, he has still given up 62 homers over the last three seasons. He also gave up two homers and eight hits over 12 outs in his last postseason start back in 2023 with the Twins. There is a chance Rice doesn't see many pitches today, but we can capitalize on that too, with his Over 0.5 walks also plus money at 2.3x. This is still a great price on a guy who has launched 43 homers in 155 games.
Total
o6.5 (-119)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Max Fried’s postseason struggles include a 5.31 ERA and seven appearances with four or more earned runs allowed, including getting rocked for seven ERs vs Toronto last season. At 6.5, we don’t need another total meltdown to cash the Over. The Yankees scored nine yesterday, but even a modest follow-up could do the trick. Sonny Gray offers fewer reasons for concern, however, Boston used five bullpen arms yesterday, leaving fewer fresh options behind him. There’s enough evidence here to expect some noise from both offenses.
CHC
@
SD
Wed, Sep 30 • 10:00 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (+110)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This total is too low, and I recommend the Over 7.5 to -110. The Cubs finished third in wOBA and fourth in ISO against righties during the regular season, and Padres starter Nick Pivetta’s 1.45 ERA across his last four starts is saddled with a 4.78 xERA and healthy 43.4% hard-hit rate. San Diego also posted a league-high wOBA while scoring 5.6 runs per game in September, so Chicago righty Kevin Gausman won’t have it easy in Game 2, either. Additionally, Gausman has been incredibly inconsistent since joining the Cubs, and his 1.97 HR/9 is a particularly concerning mark given the form the Friars are entering in.
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+375)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I have this fair around 23.5%. Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of three Padres who went deep yesterday, and there weren't many hitters who were better in the second half than Tatis. The right-handed hitter launched 21 homers since the All-Star break, and only three other batters had a better slugging rate than the Padres outfielder. He'll face Kevin Gausman, who can give up a lot of fly balls if that splitter isn't diving. Tatis has already taken him deep twice over a not-so-small sample of 23 at-bats, where he owns a 1.027 OPS against the Cubs starter. I'm not getting cute and adding big names to today's home run card.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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