MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates have struck out 23 times already in the first two games of the series. I’m expecting strikeout merchant Dylan Cease to continue mowing down batters in this matchup. 

He’s gone Over today’s posted total of 7.5 strikeouts with 9+ strikeouts in three straight outings. He's second in K/9 this season, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per start, while also ranking in the 97th percentile in whiff rate.

Jeremiah Jackson is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Jeremiah Jackson's launch angle this season (6.1°) is quite a bit worse than his 11.7° figure last year.. Jeremiah Jackson has shown weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 1st percentile with a 9.57 K/BB rate.

The #7 ballpark in MLB for suppressing BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. This contest is predicted to have the 3rd-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Alec Bohm's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 49% to 38.2%.. Ranking in the 19th percentile, Alec Bohm has notched a .268 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Gasper in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Mickey Gasper has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the lowest temperature of the day at 50°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.3-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for hurlers.

The Rays have won 24 of their last 27 games against AL opponents.

This year, Owen Caissie has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 30% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles LoanDepot Park as the worst ballpark in the game for lefty home runs.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.190) provides evidence that Owen Caissie has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .211 actual batting average.. Owen Caissie has put up a .240 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 15th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Reds starter Brady Singer has allowed three dingers in two straight starts, and 2+ homers in four of his last five. Jordan Walker has gone yard in two straight games and has feasted on right-handed pitching, batting .311 with 11 of his 15 home runs vs. righties.

The Los Angeles Dodgers scored 11 runs yesterday, the third time in seven games they’ve hit double figures. L.A. has scored 5+ in six of the last nine. Shohei Ohtani, who had a rare early-season slump, has now hit in nine straight, hitting .457 in the process. The L.A. batters face Brandon Sproat, who has been sub-replacement this year with a 5.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

Carter Jensen is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather report calls for the 3rd-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Carter Jensen will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Carter Jensen can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

Yordan Alvarez's absence on Sunday is huge, given Shota Imanaga has a 2.12 HR/9 rate vs. LHH but just a 0.65 HR/9 rate vs. RHH.

Over the past two weeks, Houston’s .179 wOBA, 13 wRC+, and .000 ISO vs. LHP are the worst in the league.

There’s too much juice for me to take Cubs ML, but there’s value on the run line given Houston’s lack of production and poor bullpen performance. 

 

 

San Francisco has a starting pitching advantage with Robbie Ray (1.91 at home) going against Noah Schultz (14.2% walk rate). SF's bats heated up yesterday, and if the lineup capitalizes on a favorable matchup, Ray should pitch his team to victory.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Brent Rooker is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. In the majors, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Brent Rooker hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. In the last 7 days, Brent Rooker's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.8-mph over the course of the season to 97-mph of late.

When assessing his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #3 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 13° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

As it relates to his home run skill, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.9°, Spencer Torkelson has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Based on Statcast metrics, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 89th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 30.400.. Power-wise, Spencer Torkelson finds himself in the 77th percentile, having averaged 22.4 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.

The Angels have the second-highest whiff rate in the sport. However, that doesn't mean the Rangers don't have their own strikeout issues. They actually rank 6th in the sport in whiff rate at 27% and have struck out more with a smaller dataset against left-handed pitching. Detmers' 25% K rate should be successful because of that. This all points to both pitchers having stretches of dominance in this game. I'd play this to 7.5.

Rasmussen has been a New York Yankees nightmare, posting a 1.03 ERA across eight career outings against the Bronx Bombers. This type of stat is meaningless without context, and we have it here. He's been able to do this because the Yankees are constantly reliant on their power, and Rasmussen is one of the best barrel suppression arms in baseball, sitting in the 96th percentile in such rates this season. Playbale to +100.