San Diego @ New York picks

Nick Pivetta has been one of baseball's best pitchers to start 2025. He's 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and has surrendered just two home runs in 35 1/3 innings. Yes, Aaron Judge can still hurt him but Jazz Chisholm is now sidelined and Anthony Volpe is nursing a shoulder injury that could further deplete the Yankees offense. I'll give San Diego the edge against Carlos Rodon and take the plus money on the visitors.

The weather forecast is miserable for tonight’s game between the Padres and Yankees, which includes the wind blowing in from center field. Both teams have veteran hurlers headed to the hill, and both Padres righty Nick Pivetta and Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon are off to solid starts. Pivetta has been razor sharp with a 1.78 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, and his 3.24 xFIP ranks 16th among qualified starters. Rodon has a matching 3.24 xFIP to go along with his strong 3.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

All of Manny Machado’s bombs have come against left-handers this season and he’s enjoyed himself against Carlos Rodon in the past, going 5-for-19 with a homer. While Rodon does have a 3.43 ERA, he’s had trouble with the long ball, allowing six in 42 innings across seven starts. This could be the time for Machado to leave the yard. He’s also in the middle of a five-game hitting streak, which adds more fuel to the fire.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Manny Machado will hold the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Ben Rice is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #5 venue in the league for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage against Nick Pivetta today.

The #5 venue in the league for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 15th-weakest among every team on the slate today.. Jackson Merrill has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.4% rate last year to 22.6% this season.. Jackson Merrill has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year's 90.4-mph EV.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The #5 venue in the league for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Extreme flyball bats like Tyler Wade generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 15th-weakest among every team on the slate today.. Tyler Wade's launch angle of late (39° over the past week) is considerably better than his 10.4° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Manny Machado will hold the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's game.

The #5 venue in the league for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 15th-weakest among every team on the slate today.. Jackson Merrill has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.4% rate last year to 22.6% this season.. Jackson Merrill has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year's 90.4-mph EV.