Manny Machado has had success against lefties this season — and throughout his career — and I’ll explain why that will continue tonight in my MLB player props analysis.
Freddie Freeman and Sean Murphy will also be included in my home run picks for the abbreviated Monday, May 5 slate.
Best MLB home run props today
Machado (+475)
Freeman (+500)
Murphy (+700)
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HR picks for May 5
Manny Machado (+475 at DraftKings)
Manny Machado is swinging it well for the San Diego Padres early on, hitting .295 in 33 games. His home run numbers are down with only three long balls, but there’s reason to eye this bet at +475 tonight. The Friars begin a series with the New York Yankees, who are sending Carlos Rodon to the mound.
All of Machado’s bombs have come against left-handers this season and he’s enjoyed himself against Rodon in the past, going 5-for-19 with a homer. While Rodon does have a 3.43 ERA, he’s had trouble with the long ball, allowing six of them in 42 innings across seven starts.
This could be the time for Machado to leave the yard. He’s also in the middle of a five-game hitting streak, which adds more fuel to the fire.
Freddie Freeman (+500 at DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman continues to do his thing, batting .333 already with six homers and 21 RBI for the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The former MVP is always a power threat every time he steps up to the plate and he’ll face Sandy Alcantara tonight, who has struggled with a brutal 8.31 ERA while also surrendering four home runs.
Freeman has a track record of success against Alcantara, too. He’s 9-for-32 lifetime (.281) with a pair of doubles. All six of his home runs in 2025 have come against right-handed hurlers and he has two bombs in his last four games to go along with a nine-game hitting streak.
During that span, Freeman has five multi-hit games. He’ll stay hot tonight and potentially take Alcantara deep.
Sean Murphy (+700 at DraftKings)
The Atlanta Braves offense hasn’t been great, but they’ve received a solid power output from catcher Sean Murphy. He has seven home runs in only 19 games while slugging .551. Murphy has six hits in his last six appearances and hasn’t gone deep in four games.
There is no better time for him to smack homer No. 8 than tonight. Atlanta takes on the Cincinnati Reds, and they hand Brady Singer the baseball. Murphy has destroyed him, going 5-for-8 lifetime with two homers.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+550)
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+270)
- Aaron Judge, Yankees (+200)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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