The San Diego Padres head to The Big Apple to take on the New York Yankees in a three-game set beginning Monday, May 5.
A pair of rolling veteran pitchers are set to take the hill, and the weather forecast is calling for rain and winds blowing in from center field, so my Padres vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks are calling for runs to be at a premium at Yankee Stadium tonight.
Padres vs Yankees prediction
My Padres vs Yankees best bet: Under 8 (-110 at Caesars)
The weather forecast is miserable for tonight’s game between the San Diego Padres and New York Yankees, which includes the wind blowing in from center field. Both teams have veteran hurlers headed to the hill, and both Padres righty Nick Pivetta and Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon are off to solid starts.
Pivetta has been razor sharp with a 1.78 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, and his 3.24 xFIP ranks 16th among qualified starters. Rodon has a matching 3.24 xFIP to go along with his strong 3.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The New York lefty has been particularly sharp with just two earned runs — three total — allowed across his past three starts, while also racking up an impressive 24 strikeouts across 19 innings.
San Diego ranks 18th in runs per game, too, so Rodon keeping the good times rolling is definitely in the cards, given Yankee Stadium is likely to play far less hitter-friendly tonight. The Yankees send a loaded lineup to the dish and have scored the second-most runs per game (5.5), but the injuries are piling up, and Pivetta’s underlying numbers support his excellent surface statistics.
Opposing hitters have a notably lower contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone, and Pivetta has a higher CSW%, while also inducing more contact on pitches outside the strike zone. His hard-hit rate is also down from last year, and he has positive pitch grades across the board, per FanGraphs.
Look for the poor weather to be more beneficial to Pivetta and Rodon than the San Diego and New York lineups tonight. Of course, both teams have also trended to the Under, with San Diego going Under the number in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 units / 28% ROI), and New York hitting the Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.60 units / 17% ROI).
Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Under 8
Manny Machado Over 0.5 hits
The Padres sport a 10th-ranked .323 wOBA with the third-lowest strikeout percentage against southpaws, and as noted, Pivetta has been lights out. San Diego has also won 18 of its last 29 games (+6.10 units / 16% ROI), and the Friars have the lowest bullpen ERA in baseball, supported by the third-lowest xFIP.
San Diego star Manny Machado is 5-for-19 against Rodon across 21 career plate appearances, and the third baseman has posted high-end numbers against southpaws throughout his career. Machado enters with a .379 wOBA, .247 ISO, and .898 OPS against lefties since joining San Diego in 2018, including respective .456, .324, and 1.067 marks this year.
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Padres vs Yankees odds
Padres vs Yankees live odds
Padres vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +120 | New York -140
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-155) | New York -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Padres vs Yankees trend
The Padres have cashed the Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 units / 28% ROI), and the New York Yankees have hit the Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Yankees.
How to watch Padres vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Monday, 5-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, YES |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (5-1, 1.78 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.43 ERA) |
Padres vs Yankees latest injuries
Padres vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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