MLB Picks

Neither team is hitting the ball particularly well this week, with the Astros batting .236 with a .668 OPS, and the Tigers hitting .240/.712.

Another strong start from Hunter Brown keeps this game Under 8.5 runs. 

The Phillies start Jesus Luzardo, who has pitched into the sixth inning in eight straight starts, given up two or fewer earned runs in seven of them, and had 13 strikeouts his last time out.

The New York Mets start Cionel Perez as an opener in a bullpen game a day after they used four relievers for 61 pitches. That's a big advantage for Philly.

Despite the Royals' disappointing 2026 season, Bobby Witt Jr. continues to be their offensive catalyst. He draws a favorable matchup against left hander Anthony Kay, whose below average pitch mix aligns well with Witt's strengths. Batters-Box gives Witt an elite rating, and he has gone over this prop in 56% of his road games while recording a hit in 76%. Against left handed pitching, he is batting .364 with a .618 slugging percentage, a 1.035 OPS, and elite hard contact metrics over his last 60 plate appearances. With Kay struggling against right handed bats, Witt is in a great spot this afternoon.

Brandon Woodruff owns a solid 3.00 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile in xERA and 82nd in xBA.

The Milwaukee Brewers are much more likely to have success at the plate. The Chicago Cubs will be going with a bullpen game, which is a scary proposition when they sit 29th in FIP in June.

Bet to -105.

Shea Langeliers is in an excellent spot against Angels left hander Sam Aldegheri, who has struggled badly against right handed hitters. Over his last 30 righties faced, Aldegheri has allowed a 72% elevation rate, 16% barrel rate, and a .455 xwOBA. Langeliers matches up well against his arsenal and has crushed left handed pitching all season, posting a .337 batting average, .651 slugging percentage, 1.046 OPS, and 183 wRC+. He has also generated a 48% hard hit rate and 13% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against lefties. I like the value at -115, with his home run and double props worth a look as well.

This line is giving too much respect to Michael King (3.33 ERA) and the home team over the recently shaky Emmet Sheehan (5.32 ERA) and the visitors. King’s 4.69 xERA is actually higher than Sheehan’s (4.03), however, and San Diego's 23-20 record at home is worse than L.A.’s 27-16 road record.

Sonny Gray's impressive season seems unsustainable.

He's still a solid pitcher, but he's outperformed his expectations in a variety of ways this season. At some point, there will be regression. His actual ERA is over a full run lower than his expected ERA of 3.8. The New York Yankees can provide some of that regression, targeting a barrel rate that's just average at 7.3%.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.