MLB Picks

This is a massive number with the Angels sending their best pitcher to the mound. THE BAT is projecting a fair price of -167, making this Under one of the best +EV sides or totals on the board this morning. My favorite angle on this Under — and why I have zero interest in the Orioles while also liking the Angels moneyline and Baltimore team total Under 4.5 — is the travel spot. The Orioles are wrapping up a West Coast trip that included stops in Seattle and Los Angeles. Following today's matinee, Baltimore heads home for the first time in nine days, meaning this club has been on the road for nine straight days without a break. If there is a spot on the schedule to mail one in, this is it. This series hasn't seen both teams score two runs in the same game yet, and Baltimore is 2-6 O/U on this road trip. They'll also be rolling out an afternoon lineup in a getaway-day situation.

All Dalton Varsho has done since returning to the lineup is hit two home runs and a pair of doubles in three games. He racked up three extra-base hits against Houston yesterday, and while it's a small sample, his BlastContact numbers rank among the Top 20 in baseball over the last two weeks. His matchup today might be the best he's had since returning. He gets right-hander Mike Burrows, who has allowed 18 home runs this season, was recently moved back into the rotation, and has been crushed by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .320 batting average. Twelve of those 18 home runs allowed have come against lefties. Burrows owns the 21st-worst HR/FB rate in baseball over the last 30 days and doesn't generate many groundballs, carrying just a 38% groundball rate. I'd play this down to +420.

This is a rough setup for San Diego's pitching staff. JP Sears comes up from Triple-A where he's been blasted for an 11.14 ERA and 2.02 WHIP across his last six starts, and now faces a Braves offense that ranks second in road scoring. The Padres also had to use seven pitchers last night, putting extra strain on the bullpen. On the flip side, Martin Perez owns a 2.78 ERA and draws one of baseball's weakest lineups against left-handed pitching, with a bullpen that ranks first in ERA in June backing him up. 

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.