Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on June 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
MIL
@
ATL
Sun, Jun 21 • 1:35 PM ET
Robert Gasser has a sterling .186 xBA and holds the opposition to a 29.0% hard-hit rate. Combine that with Bryce Elder’s ability to avoid hard contact, and we could be in for a well-pitched game despite the quality of these offenses. The first two games of this series ended with totals of seven runs or less, and I like the Under again in today’s game as long as the total stays at 8.5.
Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder hasn’t been missing as many bats as he’d like, but he has generated poor contact. Opponents are barreling up on just 3.8% of the balls they hit against Elder, and the Milwaukee Brewers likely won’t do any better, as they’ve only generated a 7.1% barrel rate this season. I'm taking Atlanta to win today at -140 or better.
CIN
@
NYY
Sun, Jun 21 • 1:35 PM ET
u8.5 (-116)
Cincinnati starter Chase Burns' pitching dominance has kept scores low.
In his last eight starts, the Reds and their opponent have failed to score a combined nine runs in five of them.
The Under has also cashed in five of the last seven meetings between the Reds and Yankees.
CIN (+105)
SF
@
MIA
Sun, Jun 21 • 1:40 PM ET
MIA (+122)
Do not miss the boat on this home underdog. Miami is the better offense right now (115 vs. 110 wRC+) and pairs it with the single most dominant bullpen in baseball over the last 14 days, pitching to a pristine 2.40 ERA and an electric 10.91 K/9. The Marlins are the easiest prediction on the board.
WAS
@
TB
Sun, Jun 21 • 1:40 PM ET
James Wood o0.5 Total Home Runs (+288)
James Wood ranks among the top percentile in the majors in xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel %, so it’s no surprise how often he’s going yard.
Rays starter Nick Martinez has given up 1.7 HR/9 over his last three appearances, while the team’s bullpen has allowed 47 dingers – second most among all clubs.
CHW
@
DET
Sun, Jun 21 • 1:40 PM ET
CLE
@
HOU
Sun, Jun 21 • 2:10 PM ET
Travis Bazzana o1.5 Total Bases (+141)
Bazzana is red-hot, hitting .375 over his last seven games while carrying a strong .845 OPS on the season. He has also excelled against right-handed pitching, batting .327. Teng is a favorable target, carrying a -6 Run Value on his fastball while allowing lefties to slug .592 against his changeup. With a disciplined 22.2% chase rate, Bazzana should force Teng into the zone and get pitches he can drive for extra bases to +100.
STL
@
KC
Sun, Jun 21 • 2:10 PM ET
TOR
@
CHC
Sun, Jun 21 • 2:20 PM ET
CHC (+108)
SD
@
TEX
Sun, Jun 21 • 2:35 PM ET
PIT
@
COL
Sun, Jun 21 • 3:10 PM ET
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+255)
Brandon Lowe has already launched 18 home runs while posting an .842 OPS this season, and his underlying metrics remain strong, ranking in the 79th percentile in Barrel Rate and the 83rd percentile in expected slugging percentage. Michael Lorenzen has struggled badly in 2026, carrying a 7.13 ERA and 5.60 xERA while allowing opponents to post a .478 expected slugging percentage. His four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter all carry negative Run Values, giving a power hitter like Lowe multiple pitches he can punish.
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total Home Runs (+218)
Brandon Lowe has hit 14 of his 18 dingers vs. right-handed pitching, and Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen provides a favorable matchup at the most home run-friendly park in the majors.
Lefties like Lowe are batting .403 vs. Lorenzen this season, while the 34-year-old has surrendered 1.5 HR/9.
LAA
@
ATH
Sun, Jun 21 • 4:05 PM ET
BOS
@
SEA
Sun, Jun 21 • 4:10 PM ET
BAL
@
LAD
Sun, Jun 21 • 4:10 PM ET
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Brandon Young carries a 4.32 xERA with a modest 16.6% strikeout rate, while opponents are batting .389 and slugging .528 against his sinker. Freeman has crushed sinkers this season, boasting a .340 wOBA with a .404 slugging percentage and a +9 Run Value against four-seamers, making him a strong candidate to cash this total bases prop to -110.
NYM
@
PHI
Sun, Jun 21 • 7:20 PM ET
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+264)
Kyle Schwarber holds an impressive 1.013 OPS vs. lefties this season, while Mets southpaw David Peterson has surrendered three dingers over his last 6 2/3 innings.
Peterson throws his sinker more than any other pitch (28.9%), and Schwarber has feasted against the sinker this year with a .385 average and four homers.
Juan Soto o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120)
Juan Soto has extensive experience vs. Zack Wheeler, and he's cleaned up against righties this season, hitting .314 with a 1.063 OPS.
His batting profile is among the best in the MLB this year, ranking in the 99th percentile in xSLG and squared-up %.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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